[RedactedKaos]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

That is about the extent of my knowledge on the topic.

Oh wow thank you that's super intresting and never knew so many existed..

I don't know if it was an error on Google translates or if it actualy was right.., I was trying to translate an article from a Russian source and that it would Auto detect to ask Slovenian I mean it looks just like Russian and Ukraine I mean you know not that I can tell the difference but yeah now you say that there's 50 different variations it's a pain in the ass to translate some of the stuff.


I found a translator called DeepL that's free like Google and all the other major. Knew but it seems to do ALOT better with Cyrillic and if you want to translate from English to Russian or Ukrainian to search something it'll give you like three different variations on how it can be phrased or worded just wanted to put that out there in case anyone was having trouble like I was

[WonderMomma]

Originally Posted by RedactedKaos ↗

Oh wow thank you that's super intresting and never knew so many existed..

I don't know if it was an error on Google translates or if it actualy was right.., I was trying to translate an article from a Russian source and that it would Auto detect to ask Slovenian I mean it looks just like Russian and Ukraine I mean you know not that I can tell the difference but yeah now you say that there's 50 different variations it's a pain in the ass to translate some of the stuff.


I found a translator called DeepL that's free like Google and all the other major. Knew but it seems to do ALOT better with Cyrillic and if you want to translate from English to Russian or Ukrainian to search something it'll give you like three different variations on how it can be phrased or worded just wanted to put that out there in case anyone was having trouble like I was

Most of my sources are from Telegram and it has a built in translator that doesn't seem to be too bad. But the whole translation thing is a bit precarious overall. Hence why I had to create this list of words translated from Russian/Ukrainian to English and what they mean. Otherwise, the following sentence wouldn't make much sense.

"The arrivals of cotton on attack aircraft in Flintstone sent them all to the kozbon concert."

Translation: Missiles/artillery/mlrs/mortar caused explosions on the soldiers in Kreminna, killing them all.



______

"Putin said that Russia withdrew from the grain deal because it allegedly failed to fulfill its humanitarian purpose of reducing the risk of famine in the poorest countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

According to the Russian dictator, the grain deal "was shamelessly used exclusively to enrich large American and European businesses that imported and resold grain from Ukraine.""


VIDEO:
"UNESCO condemned the Russian missile attack on the World Heritage site "Historical Center of Odesa". In the coming days, the organization will send a mission to Odesa to carry out a preliminary damage assessment.

UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay announced the "escalation of violence against the cultural heritage of Ukraine" and called on the Russian Federation to adhere to international obligations."

[WonderMomma]

"British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly postpones trip to China amid mysterious disappearance of Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who has not been seen in public for a month - Bloomberg.

The publication reminds that Qin Gang disappeared from public space on June 25, the day he met with officials from Russia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam."


I hadn't heard about this so I did some digging. This is one of the first articles I came across. WTF, this is weird.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...ister-qin-gang

Where is China’s foreign minister Qin Gang?
Qin’s absence from public view has prompted rampant speculation and highlighted Beijing’s lack of transparency.


By John Power
Published On 20 Jul 2023

China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been absent from public view for more than three weeks despite a diplomatic calendar in Beijing packed with high-profile meetings.

Qin’s prolonged absence has promoted a flurry of speculation about his whereabouts and focused a spotlight on the opaque nature of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership at the helm of the world’s second-largest economy.

When was Qin last seen?
Qin has not been seen in public since June 25, when he held talks with counterparts from Russia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka.

Qin’s final appearance in state media was a meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko, who visited Beijing less than 48 hours after the Wagner mercenary group’s abortive rebellion against Moscow.

Since then, Qin, who was named foreign minister in December, has been conspicuously absent from high-profile diplomatic engagements in Beijing.

Qin had been scheduled to meet European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on July 4, but EU officials announced that China cancelled the talks without explanation with only a few days’ warning.

Qin then failed to attend closely-watched meetings with United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and US climate envoy John Kerry.

During a meeting of foreign ministers at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Jakarta last week, China was represented by top diplomat Wang Yi, who previously served in Qin’s role and outranks the foreign minister in the CCP pecking order.

China’s foreign ministry at the time said Qin’s absence was due to “health reasons” but omitted that explanation from official transcripts. Chinese officials have since dodged questions about Qin’s health or his whereabouts.

The lack of transparency has sparked a flurry of speculation both in and outside of China, including as yet unsubstantiated rumours that Qin has fallen out of favour with the leadership.

Qin remains listed as foreign minister on the Chinese foreign ministry’s official website.

What is Qin’s background?
Qin, a career diplomat, has been long regarded as a close confidant of Chinese President Xi Jinping as well as a rising star within the CCP, who exemplified Beijing’s turn towards aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy in recent years.

The 57-year-old Tianjin native has served in the Chinese government since the late 1980s, mostly in roles related to foreign affairs.

Before his appointment as China’s foreign minister, Qin served in a variety of roles related to diplomacy, including vice minister for foreign affairs, chief spokesman for foreign affairs and several postings at the Chinese embassy in the United Kingdom.

Qin also served as head of the protocol department from 2014-2017, putting him in charge of organising Xi’s overseas travel and in close proximity to the Chinese leader.

Most recently, Qin served an 11-month stint as ambassador to the US, where his appointment was widely interpreted as a sign of Xi doubling down on “wolf warrior” diplomacy.

Qin has rejected the characterisation of Xi’s China using “wolf warrior” diplomacy while arguing that Chinese diplomats have no choice but to defend their country if faced with “jackals or wolves”.

How unusual is Qin’s disappearance?
It is not usual for high-profile figures in China to go missing for prolonged periods without explanation, although, in recent years, the trend has more commonly involved prominent business people and celebrities than politicians.

Alibaba founder Jack Ma, actress Fan Bingbing and Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai are among a host of prominent figures who have dropped out of public view for a time in recent years.

In some cases, prominent figures have reemerged months or even years later to be accused of crimes.

China’s justice system has a conviction rate close to 100 percent, and officials routinely deny suspects access to legal representation or contact with the outside world for lengthy periods.

China did not confirm the whereabouts of Xiao Jianhua, a Chinese-Canadian billionaire who managed the finances of the families of senior CCP officials, for more than three years after mainland Chinese agents took him from a luxury Hong Kong hotel in 2017.

In 2022, a Shanghai court sentenced Xiao to 13 years in prison for bribery and other corruption-related crimes.

Meng Hongwei, the then-head of Interpol, went missing for several weeks in 2018 after being arrested in China. Meng was sentenced in 2020 by a Chinese court to 13 and a half years in prison for bribery.

In February, Bao Fan, a well-known billionaire investment banker, went missing for two weeks. His company later confirmed Bao was “cooperating in an investigation” without elaborating further.

Senior CCP officials have dropped off the map, too.

Xi himself disappeared from public view for two weeks in 2012 ahead of the CCP’s once-a-decade leadership transition, prompting speculation that the then-vice president had fallen out of favour.

In one of the most spectacular falls from grace from the CCP’s inner circle in recent memory, Bo Xilai, the former communist party secretary of Chongqing, vanished from public view for several months in 2013 before being handed a life sentence for corruption, after his wife was convicted for the murder of a British businessman.

In 2015, Zhou Yongkang, the former head of China’s security services, became the most senior CCP official yet to be purged after he was sentenced to life in prison on corruption charges.

Steve Tsang, director of SOAS China Institute in London, said the circumstances of Qin’s absence suggest he has fallen out of favour with Beijing.

“It is not exceptional for senior officials to disappear in China, but apart from Xi Jinping who disappeared himself for nearly two weeks or so in the run-up to the 18th Party Congress, others were disappeared. In the latter cases, they were usually in trouble – under arrest or investigation – when public references to them re-appeared,” Tsang told Al Jazeera.

“The Xi case was unusual as he was by then the heir apparent and, with the benefit of hindsight, disappeared himself in a tactical move to get his way,” Tsang added.

“Qin is not senior or powerful enough to play the game Xi played a decade back. More likely than not, Qin’s disappearance is not voluntary, in which case, it is more likely that he is in trouble. Being someone promoted on the fast track by Xi, only Xi can punish Qin.”

[WonderMomma]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

"Lukashenko meets with Putin in St. Petersburg

At the meeting, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that the Wagner PMC fighters were "stressing him out" because they wanted to attack Poland.

Media reports say that Lukashenko brought to the meeting with Putin a map of the deployment of Polish troops to the borders of the Union State: a brigade near Brest and Hrodna.

The meeting between the dictators is expected to last two days."
Attachment 1197352

So Wagner wants to attack Poland? A few months ago Russia was saying that Poland was going to attack Western Ukraine....



This would be a clear escalation on NATO territory. It would be on like Donkey Kong.

"During his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko said that Wagnerites want to "go on a sightseeing tour" to Poland."

[WonderMomma]

NO MEDIA:

"An analysis of the situation and development prospects of the Black Sea region by Andriy Klymenko, project manager at Black Sea Strategic Research Institute

Current situation:

1️⃣No one can predict when the war will end.
◼The war will not end with reaching the 1991 state borders of Ukraine.
◼A peace agreement with Russia will mark the end of the war.
◼Ukraine will not become a NATO member until then.
◼Turkey will not open the Bosphorus to NATO warships (and Russia's) until the war is over.

2️⃣Russia is preparing for a long war and can withstand it.

◼Russia's economy has withstood sanctions, adapted, and reoriented to the Global East.

◾️Oil:
The Black Sea is becoming an increasingly important source of revenue for Russia to continue the war - a record 5 million tonnes of crude oil in each of the last 4 months and 4 million tonnes of diesel fuel from the Black Sea. Revenues also remain steady, some of them are used to purchase "parallel imports".

The number of violations on marine oil and petroleum embargo keeps growing. Dozens of tankers under the embargo make several direct voyages a month to ports in the US, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Greece.

◾️Grain:

In 2023, Russia's grain transshipment increased by 2.2 times, and mineral fertilizers by 1.6 times. Cargo turnover of the Black Sea ports for the first half of 2023: Novorossiysk - (+11.0%), Tuapse - (+38.5%), Kavkaz port - (up 2.2 times), Rostov-on-Don - (+35.7%).

3️⃣Even partial isolation of Russia seems impossible in the current global economy.

◼Russia has renewed and even surpassed its 2021 figures for imports of complex goods/devices/dual-use components.

4️⃣The global world seems to be getting more and more divided into 2 parts based on its attitude to the Great War.

5️⃣It is premature to hope for a rapid disintegration of Russia.

Its weakest point is the archaic, inflexible vertical system of governance. But there is no opposition. Imperialism and colonialism shared by authorities and people.

6️⃣Ukraine, including the Black Sea, has already become and will remain a kind of frontline state in the foreseeable future - a vast territory of constant long-term confrontation between the West and Russia.

7️⃣This "frontier" will not stay within the borders of Ukraine.

It is spreading and will continue to spread, not only to the Greater Black Sea region and to our closest neighbors and allies - Poland and the Baltic states.

❗️The civilized world must simultaneously realize the global danger of Russia and stop being afraid of Russia. Many neighboring countries already did that. Other countries still have that fear.

Russia is not an ordinary state. It is a territory ruled by a kind of criminal conglomerate.

Ideas for implementation:

✅ The Black Sea countries should create permanent naval groups now to protect the security of their own offshore gas fields; to protect maritime transportation (freedom of navigation); to combat sea mines;

✅ The safety of shipping and gas platforms should be protected not only from the sea but also from the air;

✅ A NATO Black Sea Command (or Command of International Peacekeeping and Maritime Security Forces, as well as International Disaster Response Forces) should be established;

✅ The Black Sea security cannot be achieved without de-occupation of Crimea;

✅ An international military base for deterring Russia should be established in the de-occupied Crimea;

✅ After the war is over, Russia should be deprived of the right to have a military fleet in the Black Sea, with the exception of coast guard boats;

✅ Each country that has imposed sanctions against Russia should create a state body to monitor their implementation, similar to the US OFAC;

✅ Turkey should reflect on its historical role in the 21st century.

Therefore, unless there is a "black swan," we should assume that the war will last for a long time.
Being a warrior state becomes Ukraine's historical mission"

[Roosta]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

**moved from the mobilization thread


Another thread derail so it will be moved into the proper thread. What's with you posting links behind paywalls? If you're not going to paste the entire article, the links are useless. It's rather deceptive to paste only a portion that even half ass supports your narrative. Therefore, it's out of context.

What choice do they have? Other than to do nothing and allow defeat. There are thousands of western/NATO trained Ukrainian soldiers. 36,000 alone in the last several months that are fully trained and equipped to enter the counteroffensive. It's been happening since March or so of 2022 and training continues to this day, as I've reported many times in the briefing thread.

People keep talking about how "slow" the counteroffense is going and people like you keep spreading lies about western support stopping because of it, how they're underequipped, and undertrained. It seems your information intake processes are selective and for whatever reason, you're not seeing the whole picture.

Even in the article below it mentions "what if" scenarios if the counteroffensive stalls... whether support will continue. But that is simply a question of "what if". I haven't seen any officials stating anything about it stopping. Why? Because they too, cannot read the future. Know one knows what is going to happen.

It's good that they are not just going into the counteroffensive balls to wall, like Russia did the first month of the invasion. It lessens their losses of both humans and equipment. After months of talking about the counteroffensive, too many people are expecting too much too soon.

It's prime time for the Ukrainian Army. Time to truly show Russia, the world and most importantly, themselves, exactly what they are now capable of. But it's going to stretch out over weeks to months.

Source (behind paywall): https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/23/u...-training.html

Ukraine’s Western-Trained Brigades Begin to Enter the Fight
The arrival of new units could be pivotal. But progress has been slow for Ukraine in the early stage of its counteroffensive.

By Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt
Reporting from Washington

June 23, 2023


They are fighting more effectively at night than their Russian counterparts, U.S. officials say.

They are using American-made Bradley fighting vehicles to destroy Russian armor with anti-tank missiles. And they are deploying combined arms tactics — synchronized attacks by infantry, armor and artillery forces — that they learned from American and other Western troops.

It is, finally, showtime for the 36,000 Ukrainian soldiers — nine brigades — that have been armed, equipped and trained outside of Ukraine over the past several months by the United States and its NATO allies.

How these Western-trained troops perform over the next few months, military experts say, will help determine the success of Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive to push Russian forces out of occupied territory. Their performance will also demonstrate whether the tens of billions of dollars in weapons that Ukraine has received from its allies, including $40 billion from the Biden administration, is managing to transform the Ukrainian military into a NATO-standard fighting force.

Biden administration officials are hoping the nine brigades will show that the American way of warfare — using combined arms, synchronized tactics and regiments with empowered senior enlisted soldiers — is superior to the rigidly centralized command-structure that is the Russian approach.

But the going has been slow for Ukraine, and even proponents of the American way acknowledge that the beginning of the counteroffensive has not yet provided any swift breakthroughs like the Ukrainian military’s one-week retaking of Kharkiv last fall.

“This is the hardest part of the counteroffensive for the Ukrainian military, and it’s also the stage where Russian forces are able to bring their remaining advantages in artillery and air support,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. “If the Ukrainians are able to breach, then the dynamics could shift.”

Ukrainian troops have had some small successes, breaking through a first line of Russian defenses and reclaiming several villages. But they have lost some of their newest Western tanks and armored vehicles, and both sides have suffered a high number of casualties, according to a British intelligence report.

“This is very hard work,” said Frederick B. Hodges, a retired lieutenant general and former top U.S. Army commander in Europe. But, he added, “That’s what they’ve been training to do for many months.”

The early stages of the training focused on specific weapons systems supplied by the United States, such as the howitzer. Conducted by the 7th Army Training Command in Germany, the sessions included classroom instruction and field work that began with small squads and later involved larger units, culminating in more complex combat exercises bringing entire battalions and headquarters together.

Other countries, including Britain, Germany and Spain, have also trained Ukrainian brigades for the counteroffensive.

The bulk of the nine Ukrainian brigades has yet to be committed to the fight, but the vanguard of that main assault force is already making its mark.

Pentagon officials and military analysts say Ukraine has gained an advantage by fighting at night. Using night-vision optics, Bradleys and German-supplied Leopard tanks can identify and attack Russian targets in darkness at longer ranges than the Russians.

The difference is even more acute now that Russia is using older, less capable tanks after many of its newer, more advanced versions were destroyed in earlier battles, analysts said.

Ukraine has reinforced the new units with battle-hardened battalions as they prepare to maneuver through Russian minefields and breach other heavily fortified defenses. As part of their weekslong training, soldiers in the brigades briefly rotated into frontline combat units before their entire units deployed.

Ukraine does not discuss military losses, but the battlefield conditions pose a serious challenge for the Ukrainian troops. Russian forces have built a network of minefields, tank traps and other defenses, and the flat terrain, with little cover along much of the southern front, leaves the advancing forces vulnerable to Russian artillery.

In the early days of the counteroffensive, several Bradley fighting vehicles and German Leopard tanks were abandoned by Ukrainian troops or destroyed by Russian forces, based on videos and photographs posted online by bloggers and verified by The New York Times. But the Ukrainian tank crews have generally survived the attacks, and many of the damaged Bradleys and Leopards can be recovered and repaired, U.S. and Ukrainian officials say.

“The Bradleys and Leopards are performing well,” said Rob Lee, a Russian military specialist at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia and a former U.S. Marine officer. “They’re more survivable than the other options Ukraine had. Ukrainian soldiers can be more confident in future battles knowing they’re more likely to survive.”

Ukrainian troops have broken through initial fighting positions along a part of the front and continue to look for Russian vulnerabilities, but they remain several miles from Russia’s main defensive lines. The Russians are waiting to see if the Ukrainians make significant advances before making major movements or adjustments, U.S. officials and military analysts said.

Ukrainian forces have already faced minefields, trenches, anti-tank ditches, air assaults and artillery fire. Bad weather last week, which made muddy fields impassable for heavy armored vehicles, has also hampered both militaries’ efforts, officials said.

For the newly trained troops, speed will be of paramount importance. “They need to keep moving, because the slower they go, the more exposed they are,” said Seth G. Jones, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

For more than a year, Biden administration officials tried to keep facets of the training secret, for fear of providing fuel to the idea that it is the United States, and not Ukraine, that is at war with Russia.

In January, the administration allowed reporters to watch portions of the training in Grafenwöhr, Germany, but they could only follow Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and watch his interactions with Ukrainian and U.S. troops and commanders. They were not permitted to report specific conversations between General Milley and Ukrainian forces, or take photos or video.

On the day he visited, officials said, General Milley exhorted Ukrainian troops to defend their country. As he met with commanders, he said that “this is one of those moments in time where if you want to make a difference, this is it.”

Ukraine is counting on the brigades to help break through Russian defenses, regain some of the nearly 20 percent of the country the Russians occupy, and possibly sever the land bridge connecting Russia to the strategically important Crimea Peninsula.

One Pentagon official said that a lot of training involved teaching Ukrainian troops how to go on the offensive, rather than stay on defense. For years, Ukrainian troops have worked on defensive tactics as Russian-backed separatists launched attacks in eastern Ukraine. When Moscow launched its full-scale invasion last year, Ukrainian troops put their defensive operations into play, denying Russia the swift victory it had anticipated.

If the counteroffensive stalls and the conflict turns into a prolonged insurgency, there are questions about whether Western countries will continue supporting Ukraine at current levels of military aid. Upcoming elections in some of those countries, particularly the United States, pose another potential pitfall for future support.

But if Ukraine can muster a series of tactical victories and string them into successive pivot points, Kyiv might be able to force Moscow’s hand at the negotiation table, U.S. officials say.

“Ukraine’s success in the counteroffensive would do two things,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said in Washington last week. “It would strengthen its position at any negotiated table that emerges, and it may have the effect as well of actually causing Putin to finally focus on negotiating an end to the war that he started.”

Faust has no credibility !

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

NO MEDIA:
"Ukraine will receive F-16 fighter jets, but their delivery will take several months, - US Secretary of State Blinken.

Source: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...-jets-timeline

Antony Blinken says sending Ukraine F-16 jets would take 'months and months'
by Rachel Schilke, Breaking News Reporter |
July 23, 2023 05:57 PM

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it would take "months and months" to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, but assured that the the United States's support for the nation in its war against Russia has not wavered.

During an interview Sunday with CNN's Fareed Zakaria, Blinken said the U.S. has provided Ukraine consistent support, whether through financial assistance or equipment to help repel Russian forces.

"At every step along the way, in fact, going back before the Russian aggression when we saw the storm rising ... we made sure, going back to Labor Day before the war, Christmas before the war, that they started to get in their hands the equipment they would need if the Russians went forward," Blinken said. "Every step along the way ever since, we've worked to try to get them what they need, when they need it."

"But it's not just the equipment itself. It's the training, it's the maintenance, it's the ability to use it in combined arms operations. All of that takes time," Blinken continued. "If a decision were made to actually move forward on the F-16s tomorrow, it would be months and months before they were actually operational."

Blinken's comments come as NATO allies work to arrange the training and transfer of F-16 jets to Ukraine. A senior European official told the Washington Examiner that they are aiming to send the fighter jets sometime during the fall.

The exact number of F-16s allotted for Ukraine remains unknown, but some reports suggest that Denmark, Norway, and Netherlands could come together to provide about 50 of the jets.

In mid-July, Joint Staff Director for Operations Lt. Gen. Douglas A. Sims confirmed that cluster munitions were delivered to Ukraine from the U.S. The defense department also said it had "hundreds of thousands" available to provide immediately.



______

"Greek consulate building and 50 houses damaged in Odesa strike - Zelensky

"Last night alone, almost 50 buildings in Odesa were damaged, 25 of them are architectural monuments. The historic center, a world heritage site, which was taken under the protection of UNESCO. The building of the Greek consulate was also damaged. This is the second consular institution to be affected by Russian terror," the President said."

Attachment 1197360

"Vipers" to the front.

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

VIDEO:
"UNESCO condemned the Russian missile attack on the World Heritage site "Historical Center of Odesa". In the coming days, the organization will send a mission to Odesa to carry out a preliminary damage assessment.

UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay announced the "escalation of violence against the cultural heritage of Ukraine" and called on the Russian Federation to adhere to international obligations."

More evidence that russia is wiping out Ukraine's history & culture from the pages of history.

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

"British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly postpones trip to China amid mysterious disappearance of Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who has not been seen in public for a month - Bloomberg.

The publication reminds that Qin Gang disappeared from public space on June 25, the day he met with officials from Russia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam."
Attachment 1197472

I hadn't heard about this so I did some digging. This is one of the first articles I came across. WTF, this is weird.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...ister-qin-gang

Where is China’s foreign minister Qin Gang?
Qin’s absence from public view has prompted rampant speculation and highlighted Beijing’s lack of transparency.
Attachment 1197474

By John Power
Published On 20 Jul 2023

China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang has been absent from public view for more than three weeks despite a diplomatic calendar in Beijing packed with high-profile meetings.

Qin’s prolonged absence has promoted a flurry of speculation about his whereabouts and focused a spotlight on the opaque nature of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership at the helm of the world’s second-largest economy.

When was Qin last seen?
Qin has not been seen in public since June 25, when he held talks with counterparts from Russia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka.

Qin’s final appearance in state media was a meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko, who visited Beijing less than 48 hours after the Wagner mercenary group’s abortive rebellion against Moscow.

Since then, Qin, who was named foreign minister in December, has been conspicuously absent from high-profile diplomatic engagements in Beijing.

Qin had been scheduled to meet European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on July 4, but EU officials announced that China cancelled the talks without explanation with only a few days’ warning.

Qin then failed to attend closely-watched meetings with United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and US climate envoy John Kerry.

During a meeting of foreign ministers at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Jakarta last week, China was represented by top diplomat Wang Yi, who previously served in Qin’s role and outranks the foreign minister in the CCP pecking order.

China’s foreign ministry at the time said Qin’s absence was due to “health reasons” but omitted that explanation from official transcripts. Chinese officials have since dodged questions about Qin’s health or his whereabouts.

The lack of transparency has sparked a flurry of speculation both in and outside of China, including as yet unsubstantiated rumours that Qin has fallen out of favour with the leadership.

Qin remains listed as foreign minister on the Chinese foreign ministry’s official website.

What is Qin’s background?
Qin, a career diplomat, has been long regarded as a close confidant of Chinese President Xi Jinping as well as a rising star within the CCP, who exemplified Beijing’s turn towards aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy in recent years.

The 57-year-old Tianjin native has served in the Chinese government since the late 1980s, mostly in roles related to foreign affairs.

Before his appointment as China’s foreign minister, Qin served in a variety of roles related to diplomacy, including vice minister for foreign affairs, chief spokesman for foreign affairs and several postings at the Chinese embassy in the United Kingdom.

Qin also served as head of the protocol department from 2014-2017, putting him in charge of organising Xi’s overseas travel and in close proximity to the Chinese leader.

Most recently, Qin served an 11-month stint as ambassador to the US, where his appointment was widely interpreted as a sign of Xi doubling down on “wolf warrior” diplomacy.

Qin has rejected the characterisation of Xi’s China using “wolf warrior” diplomacy while arguing that Chinese diplomats have no choice but to defend their country if faced with “jackals or wolves”.

How unusual is Qin’s disappearance?
It is not usual for high-profile figures in China to go missing for prolonged periods without explanation, although, in recent years, the trend has more commonly involved prominent business people and celebrities than politicians.

Alibaba founder Jack Ma, actress Fan Bingbing and Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai are among a host of prominent figures who have dropped out of public view for a time in recent years.

In some cases, prominent figures have reemerged months or even years later to be accused of crimes.

China’s justice system has a conviction rate close to 100 percent, and officials routinely deny suspects access to legal representation or contact with the outside world for lengthy periods.

China did not confirm the whereabouts of Xiao Jianhua, a Chinese-Canadian billionaire who managed the finances of the families of senior CCP officials, for more than three years after mainland Chinese agents took him from a luxury Hong Kong hotel in 2017.

In 2022, a Shanghai court sentenced Xiao to 13 years in prison for bribery and other corruption-related crimes.

Meng Hongwei, the then-head of Interpol, went missing for several weeks in 2018 after being arrested in China. Meng was sentenced in 2020 by a Chinese court to 13 and a half years in prison for bribery.

In February, Bao Fan, a well-known billionaire investment banker, went missing for two weeks. His company later confirmed Bao was “cooperating in an investigation” without elaborating further.

Senior CCP officials have dropped off the map, too.

Xi himself disappeared from public view for two weeks in 2012 ahead of the CCP’s once-a-decade leadership transition, prompting speculation that the then-vice president had fallen out of favour.

In one of the most spectacular falls from grace from the CCP’s inner circle in recent memory, Bo Xilai, the former communist party secretary of Chongqing, vanished from public view for several months in 2013 before being handed a life sentence for corruption, after his wife was convicted for the murder of a British businessman.

In 2015, Zhou Yongkang, the former head of China’s security services, became the most senior CCP official yet to be purged after he was sentenced to life in prison on corruption charges.

Steve Tsang, director of SOAS China Institute in London, said the circumstances of Qin’s absence suggest he has fallen out of favour with Beijing.

“It is not exceptional for senior officials to disappear in China, but apart from Xi Jinping who disappeared himself for nearly two weeks or so in the run-up to the 18th Party Congress, others were disappeared. In the latter cases, they were usually in trouble – under arrest or investigation – when public references to them re-appeared,” Tsang told Al Jazeera.

“The Xi case was unusual as he was by then the heir apparent and, with the benefit of hindsight, disappeared himself in a tactical move to get his way,” Tsang added.

“Qin is not senior or powerful enough to play the game Xi played a decade back. More likely than not, Qin’s disappearance is not voluntary, in which case, it is more likely that he is in trouble. Being someone promoted on the fast track by Xi, only Xi can punish Qin.”

Probably in a whore house smokin weed.

[Guns N' Coffee]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

It is not usual for high-profile figures in China to go missing for prolonged periods without explanation, although, in recent years, the trend has more commonly involved prominent business people and celebrities than politicians.

Alibaba founder Jack Ma, actress Fan Bingbing and Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai are among a host of prominent figures who have dropped out of public view for a time in recent years.

In some cases, prominent figures have reemerged months or even years later to be accused of crimes.

China’s justice system has a conviction rate close to 100 percent, and officials routinely deny suspects access to legal representation or contact with the outside world for lengthy periods.

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China has great expertise in disappearing people:

Businessman Jack Ma, ~3 years
Actress Fan Bingbing, 4 months
Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai, 3 weeks and then forced into retirement

If the State thinks you need investigating, they will hold you in isolation where you have no contact with anyone.

Also China’s justice system has a conviction rate of 99.9%

[kellyhound]

Desmond Shum and his wife Whitney Duan were closely associated with China’s top cadres as businessmen. But then Duan disappeared without a trace; she was one of China’s wealthiest women at the time. Fabian Peltsch spoke with Shum about how China’s leadership deliberately creates an atmosphere of fear through opacity and what the recent disappearance of Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang means for the party apparatus.
Your ex-wife Duan Weihong used to be one of China’s wealthiest women. Before her sudden disappearance in 2017, she maintained close contact with high-ranking government cadres under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao.

In your book “Chinese Roulette,” you give a profound insight into the corruption and intransparency of a system in which even the most powerful can suddenly disappear, as is the case now with Foreign Minister Qin Gang, the most prominent case so far. Since you know the apparatus from the inside: What do you think happened to him?

His disappearance can have all kinds of causes. It’s like that in regimes like China or Russia. Decisions are made in secrecy, there is no transparency and no open process, from Qin’s rapid rise through the ranks to his downfall last week. Everyone is trying to read through the tea leaves now, including the bureaucrats of the Communist Party of China themselves.

What signal does the sudden disappearance of China’s foreign minister send to the world?

From the outside, it looks terrible for Xi Jinping. He’s indecisive and incompetent in handling the current situation. One would think any government leader would be more competent: preparing a storyline, appointing a successor, or letting him reappear, all in quick succession.

Any execution is better than having the nation’s foreign minister disappear for weeks, refusing to answer questions about his whereabouts and keeping the entire world in suspense. It demonstrates the current state of China. It is an abnormal state, an unpredictable state.

And what message does his disappearance convey internally?

For the system’s bureaucrats, the case shows that no one is safe. Qin, after all, was supposedly Xi’s favorite. Now the whole affair could paralyze the entire party-bureaucracy, especially that of the foreign ministry. When the state’s top dog disappears, everyone in the organization freezes.

Because no one is certain why the person has been taken. So you are not sure how any of your actions and decisions would be looked upon by the incoming replacement or by Qin himself if he reappears.

If you work in the ministry, you don’t know who can be trusted now or who you can safely collaborate with. As a consequence, nothing gets done except for the most routine operations.

You met Qin Gang several times when you were still close to Beijing’s elites. What was your impression of him?

I know and have worked with many bureaucrats in the foreign ministry. And I have met Qin Gang on several occasions throughout the years. He’s more personable, more international in outlook, and a better communicator than most of the other bureaucrats around him.

But Xi ignored and overruled protocols in Qin’s promotions. Foreign ministry employees tend to follow a very specific career path. They usually have a degree from one to three particular schools in Beijing, often majoring in languages.

They end up at the Foreign Ministry after graduation and patiently work on their careers there, rising through the ranks. Qin has leapfrogged many others with his advancement in recent years. Many director generals and vice ministers in the foreign ministry could be jealous and angry about that. Backstabbing is a common practice within the party-bureaucracy.

Your ex-wife had apparently also made enemies at the highest level. Shortly before publishing your book about her story, she suddenly contacted you for the first time in years.

From an unknown location, she demanded over the phone that you reconsider publishing the book for the sake of your son. What has happened since then? Have you heard from her again?

She was actually released after my book came out. She talks to our son from time to time on the phone. But she can’t really talk about her experiences. Every call can be expected to be monitored. She watches carefully what she says. Imagine: Four years in solitary confinement. Four weeks would be hard already. People that go through that are scarred for life. And she can’t leave China to meet our son here in the UK. And we can’t visit her in China either. Otherwise, we risk disappearing as well.

Did she describe to you where and under what conditions she was held during those years?

No. But she did not receive special treatment. In these cases, the authorities usually use an entire building, like a three-star hotel, and convert every room into a cell. The rooms are padded, so that you can not kill yourself. Cameras are in every corner. You are monitored 24/7, including in the bathroom. They will interrogate you continuously. You will have to write confessions. They make you study Xi-Jinping-thoughts. That’s the usual practice.

Beijing apparently doesn’t care what it looks like to the outside world. Domestically, reports and online speculation about the disappearances are being censored. Does the leadership continue to see arrests under the guise of anti-corruption as a tried and tested strategy to put certain people in their place, or did the system spiral out of control at some point?

In this kind of regime, everything is unpredictable. Who would have thought four months ago that the foreign minister could disappear? But this unpredictability is, in many ways, deliberate. That’s how you scare people. That’s how a dictatorship self-regulates. The anti-corruption ministry was set up in the 1950s. Back then, tens of thousands were already arrested with a much smaller bureaucracy. If you look into Chinese history, you realize these campaigns repeat themselves. Without independent judicatory, without a free press, it will always come back.

Are you afraid that China might export this model if it becomes an even more influential world power?

No. Because I think that China has peaked already. From here on, it just goes downward, the only question is with what pace. It will never be the biggest economy in the world. The economic model is flawed. Since 2008 they have put stimulus in every sector, whether it’s consumption, manufacturing, real estate or finance. Another stimulus is not solving the problem.

You need to change the model. The power structure. You need to give more power to the people, to the consumers. But the party is unwilling to do that because that would take away their power.

Desmond Shum 沈棟 was born 1968 in Shanghai and raised in Hong Kong. As businessman and real estate expert, he developed many prestigious projects, including the Beijing Airport Cargo Terminal, China’s largest air cargo logistics facility.

He was married to Whitney Duan, once one of the wealthiest businesswomen in China. Together they have a son. Duan was detained in 2017, possibly in relation to an anti-corruption investigation into her close business partner Sun Zhengcai. Shum published a book about her story and his experience with the political elites of Beijing.

“Red Roulette: An Insider’s Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today’s China” was published in 2021. Shum lives with his son in the UK.
https://table.media/china/en/feature...-desmond-shum/


That's how they roll.

[kellyhound]

The morning of the Marpíhív begins not with coffee)
Today at 7:43 according to the pzrk of our brigade was destroyed the enemy ka-52.
Glory to the Marines of Ukraine!

[kellyhound]

The Biden administration is sending up to $400 million in additional military aid to Ukraine, including a variety of munitions for advanced air defense systems and a number of small, surveillance Hornet drones, U.S. officials said Monday, as attacks in the war escalated to include strikes in Moscow and Crimea.

The package includes an array of ammunition — ranging from missiles for the High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) to Stingers and Javelins. The weapons are being provided through presidential drawdown authority, which allows the Pentagon to quickly take items from its own stocks and deliver them to Ukraine, often within days.

Officials said the U.S. is also sending howitzer artillery rounds and 32 Stryker armored vehicles, along with demolition equipment, mortars, Hydra-70 rockets and 28 million rounds of small arms ammunition. The Hornets are tiny nano-drones that are used largely for intelligence gathering. Ukraine has also gotten them in the past from other Western allies. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the aid package has not yet been announced.