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Community Forum · Est. 2006
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#11
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12-03-2020, 04:25 PM
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 My Rank: PRIVATE Poster Rank:5425 Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 47 Mentioned: 0 Post(s) Quoted: 16 Post(s)
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Re: Chopper Carrying Donated Organ Crashes While Landing At USC Medical Building
Flights are individual events and past experience of a particular person on board has no impact at all different to any other person, none whatsoever, on the odds of a plane crashing. You've fallen for a well established misunderstanding called Gambler's Fallacy. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g...ersfallacy.asp https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/b...o-now-i-m-safe |
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#12
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05-01-2021, 05:45 AM
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 My Rank: SERGEANT Poster Rank:1206 Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 522 Mentioned: 0 Post(s) Quoted: 93 Post(s)
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Re: Chopper Carrying Donated Organ Crashes While Landing At USC Medical Building
This is a spurious statement of the math challenged. You are spouting off the same misunderstanding of math often referred to as "gamblers fallacy." The law of independent events does not work the way you want to claim, and your continued assertions indicate once again that our educational system has failed. In the even that you are a millennial, I suppose we can blame the Bush era "no child left with a brain" programs. Setting aside the asserted math fallacies, the odds of being in an incident in a general aviation aircraft, especially a rotorcraft, are orders of magnitude higher than for commercial part 121 operations (i.e. airlines). As my CFI used to like to say "welp, we cheated death once again"... and for the record, he was in more than one incident in his career, including a lost tail rotor that he managed to more or less walk away from. Trying to put "odds" on if you're gonna bite it was just a way for the airline industry to make people feel safe in their pressurized tubes hurtling through the sky... ODDS has nothing to do with it. Every flight is an independent event, and every incident is a combination of at least 4 separate-point-failures. Just remember in a rotorcraft, the entire airframe is being held up in the air by a little shaft that is spinning very fast. On top of the shaft is the rotor, and on top of that is the nut holding it in place, known as the Jesus nut. Happy flying! |
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#14
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07-22-2021, 01:46 AM
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| My Rank: PRIVATE FIRST CLASS Poster Rank:3984 Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 80 Mentioned: 0 Post(s) Quoted: 5 Post(s)
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Re: Chopper Carrying Donated Organ Crashes While Landing At USC Medical Building
Helicopter crashes on the roof of a hospital... pilot was extracted and brought to a area hospital...  |
