[Roosta]

Originally Posted by kellyhound ↗

A russian overnight drone strike hit a hospital in Kyiv, killing at least one person and injuring four others on Jan. 5.

Enemy forces launched 165 strike drones overnight, of which roughly 100 were Shahed-type drones. Two of the four wounded victims are in serious condition, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.

The State Emergency Service reported that the second floor of the private, four-story hospital was struck, causing damage to the inpatient ward. It said that 25 people were evacuated from the premises.

The latest russian drone attack on Kyiv comes as Zelensky prepares for another diplomatic week in Europe, where he says there will be meetings with Western allies to receive more support and to end the war in Ukraine.

Condemning the russian attack on the hospital, Zelensky called on Western allies to help bolster Ukraine's air defense capability.

"Air defense is needed every day, funds for the production of interceptor drones are needed every day, and equipment for the energy sector is needed every day," Zelensky said.

Why am I not surprised to hear that these fuckers are still targeting hospitals.

[kellyhound]

The russian advance into Ukraine will continue at a snail's pace in 2026, despite Moscow's claims to have captured fourteen villages in February.

According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the russians lost 87 soldiers per square kilometer of territory gained last month.

To underscore Moscow's dominance on the battlefield, russia's top military officer, Valery Gerasimov, triumphantly announced Sunday that his troops had "liberated" twelve villages in eastern Ukraine. On Monday, the Moscow Ministry of Defense claimed two more villages had been captured.

In total, the russians are said to have captured more than 200 square kilometers in the first half of this month. Gerasimov did not specify how many soldiers he had lost in the fighting, which he described as taking place under "harsh winter conditions." russia has remained silent on the number of dead and wounded since the beginning of the invasion.

Not only the ISW, which has been meticulously mapping the battle for four years, has pointed out in recent days the disproportionately high number of infantry soldiers russia continues to lose.

NATO chief Mark Rutte said on Friday that russia is not winning. The front is over a thousand kilometers long.

Rutte spoke of thirty thousand russian deaths in January alone. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke on Sunday of a similar figure, around seven to eight thousand russian deaths per week. They did not specify which sources Rutte and Rubio were basing their findings on.

According to the ISW's military experts, who rely on various public sources, the number of russian casualties in 2026 demonstrates that Moscow has no intention of adjusting its military strategy and tactics in Ukraine. According to the think tank's calculations, they lost 83 soldiers per square kilometer throughout 2025, four fewer than so far in 2026.

The timing of Gerasimov's claims was no coincidence. He spoke during the annual security conference in Munich, just days before a new round of negotiations to end the war was scheduled to begin.

According to the ISW, it is a clear Kremlin strategy to use territorial gains on the battlefield to influence Ukraine and the West and force them to agree to territorial concessions.

Last year, this was achieved several times with US President Donald Trump, who pointed out that the russian army continued to conquer territory daily and that Kyiv should agree to a peace agreement as soon as possible.

However, as has become apparent in recent months, the russian gains are being partially offset by the advance of Ukrainian units.

This occurred, for example, in December near Kupyansk. The Ukrainian army has also launched a counteroffensive in recent weeks near Oleksandrivka, in the Donetsk region.

"Gerasimov made a big fuss about the russian territorial gains in small villages along the front in an attempt to present these advances as important," according to the ISW.

The russians are exploiting the fact that most people have no idea where these places are located, or how big they are.

However, russian territorial gains are still proceeding at a slow pace. This doesn't indicate the collapse of Ukrainian lines.

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Ukraine attacked several strategic targets in russia with drones last night. Among them was the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, which caused a major fire.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the refinery processes 6.42 million tons of oil annually, reports The Kyiv Independent. Ukrainian land forces also gained territory, the largest ever.

The oil from is particularly important for russian military logistics because the refinery is located near russian Black Sea ports.

According to russian Telegram channels, Krasnodar Krai was attacked by Ukrainian drones last night, and russian air defenses shot down more than twenty drones over the region.

Residents reported hearing more than ten explosions near the settlement of Ilsky. Shortly afterward, a large fire broke out at the local oil refinery.

The Krasnodar Krai operational headquarters confirmed that the region had been attacked but did not provide details about the damage or the affected facilities.

Krasnodar Krai is a strategic region in southwestern russia bordering the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov. The region lies across the Kerch Strait from the occupied Crimean Peninsula.

Due to the threat, the airports in Krasnodar, Sochi, and Gelendzhik suspended operations for at least four hours. Air raid sirens were also heard in Novorossiysk and Slavyansk-na-Kuban.

Ukrainian forces also reportedly carried out drone attacks on the inland Republic of Tatarstan in the Volga-Ural region of Central European russia.

Around 3:00 a.m. local time, explosions were heard in the suburbs of Kazan and in Nizhnekamsk. Witnesses reported hearing explosions, after which electricity was cut in a neighborhood of Kazan.

The city is located approximately 1,300 to 1,400 kilometers from the russian-Ukrainian border.

The airports in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk have temporarily halted all arrivals and departures.

The authorities have not yet released any official information about the consequences of the attacks in Tatarstan. Tatarstan is home to one of russia's major production facilities for Shahed drones, Alabuga.

Ukrainska Pravda reports that units of the Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also carried out drone attacks on several military targets of the russian Armed Forces in occupied Ukrainian territory, including a warehouse for the Iskander operational-tactical system in Crimea and a remote control post of the Rubikon unit in the Zaporizhia region. Powerful explosions were recorded at the scene of the incident.

The SOF also destroyed the remote control post of the Rubikon unit of the russian Armed Forces in the village of Vysoke in the Zaporizhia region.

The military said that several drones reached their targets.

Rubikon is a specialized russian military unit focused on high-tech drone warfare. Led by Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, this well-funded unit develops techniques to cut Ukrainian supply lines. Rubikon is considered one of the most effective russian drone units and is a favorite target of the Ukrainian adversary.

In total, between February 9 and 14, Special Operations Forces units reportedly successfully struck more than ten military targets of the russian armed forces in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

These targets included groups of soldiers, ammunition, fuel, and lubricant depots, areas where military vehicles are parked, and other targets.

The AFP and the Institute for the Study of War report that Ukrainian land forces recaptured 201 square kilometers of territory from russian troops between February 11 and 15.

This is considered the fastest advance by the Ukrainian armed forces in more than two and a half years. The recaptured territory is estimated to be almost equal to the total gains made by russian forces in the entire month of December 2025.

According to the ISW, the Ukrainian counterattacks were therefore successful because Starlink denied the russians access to the navigation and communications system.

russian military bloggers reported communication and command problems on the battlefield as a result of the Starlink blockade.

The main Ukrainian advance occurred approximately 80 kilometers east of Zaporizhia, where russian forces had been gaining ground since the summer of 2025.

Ukrainian forces have also regained control of the area on the front near Kharkiv, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka.

To no surprise:Telegram Messenger will be completely blocked in russia starting April 1st, reports the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel "Baza," citing sources from "various news agencies." This is reported by the independent russian blog Meduza.

According to the channel's sources, Roskomnadzor will begin a "total block of the messenger" on April 1st, similar to what it previously did with Instagram and Facebook.

"The measure will be implemented throughout russia: the app will not load on mobile networks or fixed internet connections," Baza writes.

Telegram is one of the few apps where russians can access information from independent media. In recent weeks, the app has been "throttled," with users experiencing delayed data uploads. Critics say this is part of a government campaign to drive people to the state-owned and controlled app MAX.

[Guns N' Coffee]

Elon does something good for a change.

[kellyhound]

A fire at the Kaleykino oil pumping station in Tatarstan, russia, broke out on the night of February 22–23, 2026, following a long-range Ukrainian drone attack 1,200 km from the border.

Ukrainian sources reported at least six explosions and a massive fire, while russian authorities claimed the blaze was a small-scale fire caused by falling debris from intercepted drones.

However satellite data and geolocated footage showed a significant fire involving at least one 50,000 m³ oil storage tank. Smoke plumes from the site were reported to stretch up to 170 km.

Kaleykino is a critical hub for the Druzhba pipeline, which transports crude oil to Central Europe (incl. Hungary and Slovakia). It serves as a major terminal where oil from Western Siberia and the Volga region is blended before export.

The fire was still burning in some sectors more than 24 to 48 hours after the initial strike. Local authorities stated there were no casualties. The attack has reportedly led to a reduction in oil intake by russia's pipeline monopoly, Transneft.

Both Hungary and Slovakia have accused Ukraine of intentionally disrupting or failing to repair the Druzhba pipeline to exert political pressure. In response to the ongoing supply issues, they have implemented severe countermeasures:

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico instructed the state grid operator SEPS to terminate all emergency electricity assistance to Ukraine as of February 23.

Both nations officially suspended diesel fuel exports to Ukraine on February 18, cutting off a primary fuel source for Ukraine’s agricultural and defense sectors.

Hungary is currently blocking a €90 billion EU loan intended for Ukraine, stating it will not allow the funds to move forward until oil transit resumes.

Both countries blocked the EU's 20th sanctions package against russia on February 23, preventing its adoption ahead of the invasion's fourth anniversary.

Slovakia has explicitly threatened to withdraw its support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU.

Hungary has requested that Croatia enable the transport of russian oil via the Adria pipeline to bypass Ukrainian territory, though the European Commission maintains there is no immediate risk to energy security as both nations have sufficient strategic reserves.

EU law requires member states to maintain oil reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports or 61 days of consumption.

The European Commission maintains that neither country is at risk of a total blackout because the Adria (JANAF) pipeline provides a viable bypass via oil enters via the Port of Omišalj in Croatia.

It can transport up to 15 million tonnes annually, which exceeds the combined annual requirement of both nations.

Both nations now still have a reserve of 90 days, 250000 tons which covers needs until mid-April.

[kellyhound]

Ukrainian forces struck a plant in russia's Bryansk region that manufactures control systems for missiles, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during an online media briefing on March 10.

"An operation has just successfully taken — a plant in Bryansk was hit. This plant manufactures control systems for all types of missiles of the russian Federation." Zelensky said, adding that Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi had informed him of the strike.

The strike targeted the Kremniy El plant, a major russian microelectronics manufacturer located in Bryansk, using air-launched Storm Shadow missiles, Ukraine's General Staff said.

Local officials confirmed an attack on industrial infrastructure in the city and reported damage following explosions.

"The target was hit and significant damage to production facilities was recorded," the General Staff said, noting that the extent of the damage was still being assessed.

Kremniy El is one of russia's largest military microelectronics producers, manufacturing semiconductor components used in missile guidance and control systems.

Its products are incorporated into a range of russian weapons systems, including Pantsir air defense complexes and Iskander missile systems.

The facility has been targeted in previous attacks during the war, reflecting Ukraine's broader strategy of striking deep into russia to disrupt the country's military-industrial supply chains.

Bryansk is located near the Ukrainian border but outside active front line combat areas.

According to other local reports 6 got killed and 37 got injured.

[kellyhound]

In Tikhoretsk, russia (Krasnodar Krai), a major oil transshipment hub was struck by Ukrainian drones on the night of March 11–12.

The attack targeted critical infrastructure managed by Tikhoretsk-Nafta, a subsidiary of Transneft, which serves as a key logistical node for transporting crude oil to the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse.

Drones from Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) hit the facility, causing at least two large fuel tanks to ignite.

A massive fire broke out, covering an estimated 3,800 square meters. Satellite imagery confirmed the destruction of at least two storage tankers.

High levels of benzene and xylene were recorded in the air, with a smoke plume stretching roughly 15 kilometers.

Authorities also imposed traffic restrictions on the nearby Tikhoretsk-Belaya Glina highway.

Some media speculated that the Palianytsia, a new Ukrainian jet-powered drone-missile, may have been deployed for these high-precision strikes on hardened targets.

The Palianytsia drone hit targets up to 600 miles from the front line, and reportedly has the hypothetical maximum range of 1200 miles.

[kellyhound]

In Donetsk at the Fortress Belt russian forces have launched their anticipated spring offensive against Ukraine's main defensive line being Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka. While russia has made unconfirmed tactical gains near Slovyansk and Pokrovsk, the pace remains slow, with gains often measured in mere meters.

They thought to had found a new tactic approach by launching a mass assault using soldiers and vehicles that got destroyed hoping Ukrainian troops would have used all their attack drones before launching another mass assault but that botched as Ukraine had enough drones to use around the clock.

In the Kupyansk Direction small groups of enemy infantry have infiltrated central Kupyansk, but they are reportedly cut off from ground supply lines and rely on drone drops for survival.

In the Zaporizhzhia area Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions, retaking about 100 square miles of territory in early 2026. In response, russia has redeployed elite VDV (Airborne) and naval infantry units to stabilize the front and resume their own offensive.

The UK, France, and Belgium have begun interdicting and seizing shadow fleet tankers suspected of transporting sanctioned russian oil in European waters.

Since russia lost access to Starlink terminals on February 1, its drone operations have been disrupted. Their units are reportedly attempting to replace this with Wi-Fi bridges and balloons, while Ukraine has leveraged this window to conduct successful counterattacks.

Also russia announced a ban on gasoline exports effective April 1, 2026, to stabilize domestic prices following successful Ukrainian strikes on its refineries. Analysts estimate that around 39% of russia's total federal oil refining capacity is currently halted.

Approximately 70% of these shutdowns are a direct result of Ukrainian drone attacks, which have disabled roughly 25% of national refining capacity (about 236,000 tons per day).

Repairing damaged facilities is expected to be slow due to sanctions on Western equipment, with some experts predicting that refining volumes will not return to pre-strike levels until at least June 2026.

Around 40% of russia's total crude oil export capacity, roughly 2 million barrels per day, is currently offline. All three major western export ports being Novorossiysk (Black Sea), Primorsk, and Ust-Luga (Baltic) have been hit or disrupted by recent drone waves.

Frequent seizures of shadow fleet vessels in European waters have disrupted an additional 300,000 barrels per day of Arctic oil exports from Murmansk.

A surge in global oil prices above $100/barrel due to conflict in Iran has bolstered revenues, allowing the Kremlin to scrap planned 10% budget cuts.

Unemployment is at a record low of 2%, reflecting severe labor shortages caused by mobilization and the emigration of roughly 1 million citizens.

now russia has zero companies in the global top 100 technology firms by market capitalization, with its space industry at historically low levels.

The russian aerospace forces show a surge in both combat and non-combat aircraft failures, driven by a combination of high-intensity operational strain and long-term technical degradation from sanctions.

A recurring pattern has emerged where russian fighter-bombers, primarily Su-34's, accidentally drop their payloads on russian or occupied territory.

At least 10 such incidents were reported in early 2026 alone, often caused by malfunctioning launch electronics or UMPK glide kits failing to deploy.

They also struggle with dynamic targeting. Pilots often rely on ground troops for coordinates and are reported to be ineffective against moving targets, leading to frequent strikes on non-military or pre-planned static objectives.

A leaked russian aviation safety document detailed at least 8 military aircraft and helicopters damaged in non-combat incidents over just 3 weeks in March 2026. Engine issues accounted for over one-third of recent reported incidents.

Su-34's, multiple instances of low oil pressure forcing emergency single-engine landings at airbases like Engels and Borisoglebsk.

Su-30SM2's showing repeated warnings of metal particles in oil, leading to shutdowns mid-flight.

Su-35S's showing destruction of the flexible shaft connecting gearboxes during flight.

The MiG-31 fleet has been particularly hard-hit, with at least 6 aircraft lost to technical failures since 2022.

Analysts report that russia is increasingly stripping older aircraft for parts to keep its front-line fleet operational, a sign that production of sophisticated components has not kept pace with war-time attrition.

Their pilots are estimated to receive only 100–120 flying hours per year, significantly below the 200+ hours required for high-level proficiency, contributing to pilot error and friendly fire incidents.

Despite wanting peace, 71%–75% of russians consider the recognition of occupied territories, like Donbas, as russian to be a mandatory condition for any deal. Only a marginal 18% favor returning any territory to Ukraine.

Civilians in russia are increasingly using pharmaceuticals to manage war-related stress. Sales of anti-fear pills and sedatives like Validol rose from 13 million packets in 2022 to over 16 million in 2024, with high demand continuing through 2026.

Most citizens, the apathetic majority, treat the war as white noise, delegating all responsibility to the state with the mindset that the authorities know better.

Roughly 54% of russians report the war has had a rather negative effect on their daily lives. This is tied to a significant increase in people reporting deteriorating financial circumstances (rising from 27% in late 2024 to 36% in early 2026).

While youth support is lower (61%) than those over 55 (75%–80%), younger russians have become increasingly conformist over time due to intense state indoctrination in schools.

Support for the russian military's actions continues to fluctuate between 70% and 75%, fueled by a perception that russia is fighting an existential defensive battle against the West.

As of late March 2026, North Korea has become a primary supplier for russia's war effort, providing a massive volume of munitions that analysts estimate now constitutes up to 40% to 50% of russia's total ammunition supply.

South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence estimate that North Korea has supplied between 11 million and 15 million artillery shells (primarily 152mm and 122mm) since August 2023.

Approximately 33,000 shipping containers of weapons and munitions have been delivered via sea and rail routes as of early March 2026.

North Korea has provided at least 100 to 150 ballistic missiles, including the KN-23 and KN-24 models.

Deliveries include roughly 220 artillery pieces, such as 170mm M-1989 Koksan self-propelled howitzers and 240mm multiple rocket launchers.

While lethal, North Korean missiles have shown significant reliability issues; Ukrainian prosecutors reported that approximately 50% of North Korean missiles launched failed mid-air or veered wildly off their programmed trajectories.

Recent reports indicate that russian and North Korean specialists are working together to modernize these weapons, reportedly increasing the accuracy of newer batches of KN-23 missiles.

Analysis of downed missiles has revealed that over 75% of the electronic components in North Korean KN-23s are of Western origin (primarily from the U.S. and Europe), likely procured through complex global shadow supply chains.

While North Korea remains a critical partner, some intelligence reports suggest that the pace of maritime shipments has slowed recently, possibly due to the depletion of North Korea's own aging stockpiles or a shift toward rail-based transport via the Tumen River Friendship Bridge.

The shells-for-tech swap between Moscow and Pyongyang has evolved into a deep strategic partnership. As of March 2026, the exchange has moved beyond basic food and fuel to high-end military hardware and sensitive data.

After several high-profile failures, North Korea successfully placed the Malligyong-1 spy satellite into orbit with direct russian technical assistance.

They also providing software and hardware to help Pyongyang process high-resolution satellite imagery, a critical gap in North Korean intelligence.

They also are suspected of sharing data on thermal shielding, which allows ICBM warheads to survive re-entry into the atmosphere without burning up.

South Korean intelligence and Western experts assess that russian engineers provided critical aid in troubleshooting the Chollima-1 rocket's propulsion and engine stability.

North Korea's most advanced missiles now have the range to reach the entire United States mainland.

Recent technological leaps, supported by reported russian technical assistance, have significantly increased the threat to North America.

The Hwasong-19: First tested in October 2024, this is North Korea’s largest and most powerful ICBM. It has an estimated range of at least 15,000 km (9,300 miles), allowing it to hit any target in the contiguous United States.

Hwasong-18: This was the country's first three-stage solid-fuel ICBM. It also has a range of over 15,000 km and, because it uses solid fuel, it can be launched much faster and is harder for U.S. defenses to detect before lift-off.

Hwasong-20: Unveiled in late 2025, this next-generation missile is designed to carry multiple nuclear warheads (MIRV's) to overwhelm U.S. missile defenses.

Hwasong-17: An older, liquid-fueled monster missile that also possesses the range to cover the entire U.S. mainland.

On March 29, 2026, North Korea successfully tested an upgraded solid-fuel engine with 2,500 kilonewtons of thrust—a significant increase from previous models. This extra power is crucial for carrying heavier payloads, such as multiple warheads.

Most of North Korea's newest long-range missiles now use solid fuel. Unlike older liquid-fuel missiles that require hours of visible preparation, solid-fuel missiles are kept in a ready-to-launch state, hidden in tunnels or mobile launchers.

The U.S. uses a multi-layered defense architecture to protect the homeland from North Korean ICBMs, primarily relying on the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system.

There are 44 Ground-Based Interceptors (GBI's) stationed at 2 sites: 40 at Fort Greely, Alaska, and 4 at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California.

The system detects a launch via space-based sensors, tracks it with powerful ground and sea radars (like the SBX-1 and the Long Range Discrimination Radar in Alaska), and launches an interceptor to collide with the warhead in space (hit-to-kill).

While the Missile Defense Agency maintains high confidence in the system, experts note it has an approx. 50% success rate in scripted tests. To increase the odds, a shot doctrine is used where multiple interceptors are fired at a single incoming warhead.

o counter newer threats like North Korea's Hwasong-19 and Hwasong-20, the U.S. is rapidly upgrading its capabilities.

A more advanced interceptor with multiple kill vehicles (capable of hitting several warheads or decoys from one launch) is under development by Lockheed Martin. Initial deployment is targeted for 2027–2028.

The Golden Dome initiative was announced in early 2025, this project aims to create a more comprehensive system of systems that integrates space-based tracking and multiple interceptor layers to protect the entire U.S. from all directions.

Systems like Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (on ships) and THAAD, in Guam and South Korea, provide a secondary "terminal" layer that can attempt to catch missiles if they slip through the GMD's midcourse.

Despite these defenses, senior U.S. commanders have warned that the increasing size and sophistication of North Korea's arsenal could potentially overwhelm current defense capacities in a saturation attack.

Furthermore, the transition to solid-fuel ICBM's significantly reduces the warning time for these systems to respond.

[kellyhound]

The Ukrainian drone giant General Cherry has officially partnered with Wilcox Industries to establish a production facility in Newington, New Hampshire.

The venture aims to produce thousands of combat-proven FPV and interceptor drones directly on U.S. soil.

This localization bypasses supply chain risks and aligns with the Pentagon's Drone Dominance Program, aiming for Blue UAS certification to fulfill U.S. and NATO-compliant orders.

Key models include the Bullet, a high-speed (309 km/h) VTOL interceptor designed specifically to neutralize Shahed-class drones.

The unit price for a single drone is approximately $2,100. A full operational "complex" (typically including 5 drones and a ground control station) costs around $145,000.

A Patriot missile costs roughly $4 million per shot, and even a laser-guided APKWS rocket costs about $15,000. The Bullet is designed to fix the economic gap where defending currently costs significantly more than the attacking drone.

While specific monthly figures for the Bullet are classified, the manufacturer produces thousands of various drone types per month.
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Ukraine has deployed drones connected via fiber-optic cables (up to 20km). These are immune to electronic warfare as they do not emit radio signals, making them invisible to standard russian jamming.

This Sparc AI software platform enables precision navigation in GPS-denied environments. It uses sensor fusion and optical landmark recognition rather than external signals, allowing drones to maintain mission accuracy even when GPS is spoofed or blocked.
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Ukrainian F-16's are actively utilizing AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles) to suppress enemy air defenses like the S-400.

F-16's now act as force multipliers, working alongside interceptor drones to repel massive aerial attacks.

They are also being equipped with APKWS II laser-guided rockets (roughly $30k each) to down drones cost-effectively compared to million-dollar missiles.

They can also use their 20mm Vulcan cannon to shoot down drones, significantly lowering the cost per kill compared to using multi-million dollar Patriot missiles.

F-16's operate as part of a single machine, receiving real-time targeting data from ground-based, space-based, onboard sensors and mobile fire groups to coordinate intercepts across entire regions.

The first line of detection often comes from a distributed network of acoustic and radar sensors.

Lightweight, man-portable units, like the IRIS, GAX500-3D, TV-904, ND-SV009 or the Giraffe 1X by Saab. The units are equipped with 3D radars provide high-resolution tracking. They allow small mobile groups to independently detect targets at ranges exceeding 10 km.

They also use Acoustic & RF Sensors to form a massive mesh network of thousands of passive sensors, some as simple as modified microphones or radio frequency scanners, to detect the unique signatures of Shahed engines and operator.

They also use Sky Sentinel AI Turrets which are systems incl. integrated sensors that monitor the sky 24/7. Once synchronized with broader radar networks, they can independently detect and determine the trajectories of targets moving as fast as 800 km/h.

The brains behind the interceptors themselves are modular AI units that handle the terminal (final) phase of the attack, especially in environments where GPS or radio signals are jammed.

Onboard guidance and AI models like the ZIR System which is a domestic Ukrainian AI module costing about $50 that acts as an intelligent co-pilot. It uses neural processing units to distinguish between 7 categories of targets (tanks, trucks, air defense, etc.) and can lead moving targets at speeds up to 60 km/h.

They also use last mile TAF drones which are automatic guidance modules with built-in machine vision that ensures high-accuracy hits even when the drone enters a radio-denied EW zone.

They also use Kurbas-640a Thermal cameras which are manufactured by the Ukrainian firm Odd Systems. These cameras are paired with AI modules from the Fourth Law to autonomously detect and track drones in total darkness.

The Drone Coalition, led by the UK and Latvia, provides the funding and industrial base to scale these technologies. For instance, Norway and Kongsberg are establishing joint ventures in Ukraine to produce advanced sensors and missiles for systems like NASAMS.
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Countermeasures by russia include a long-awaited AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar upgrade for the Su-35. This upgrade is intended to fully exploit the R-37M missile's 350km range, allowing russian pilots to engage targets from extreme distances while remaining outside the engagement envelope of Ukrainian F-16's.

However, Ukrainian F-16's have been equipped with specialized EW suites provided by the U.S. and NATO allies to counter russian radar signatures.

The U.S. has provided an exclusive, highly classified version of electronic warfare software for Ukraine's F-16's. This system is specially tuned to the exact frequencies and waveforms used by russian Su-35 radars.

Ukraine’s F-16's also use the Terma PIDS+ pylons and the ALQ-213 management system. These provide 360-degree missile warning and automatically deploy chaff and flares to break the radar locks from Su-35's.

Ukrainian systems, Home-on-Jam, are designed to detect when a Su-35 radar is active. Because the Su-35’s Irbis-E radar emits a massive electronic signature (up to 20kW), it acts as a beacon that Ukrainian sensors can track from hundreds of kilometers away.

The F-16's also do passive hunting when they keep its own radar off to remain invisible while being guided by the Saab 340 which is a AEW&C (Airborne Early Warning and Control) aircraft.

It can fire an AIM-120 AMRAAM at the Su-35 from 50 km away. The russian pilot was reportedly hit before even realizing he was being targeted.

Sweden recently pledged two of these aircraft to Ukraine to coordinate with F-16 fighters.

Ukraine also uses the Patriot PAC-2 system in shoot-and-scoot mode. They keep the radar silent until a Su-35 is within range, then switch it on for only 8–12 seconds, just long enough to launch a missile, before the Su-35's onboard EW can react.

Ukrainian pilots often fly at extremely low altitudes below 100 ft. This forces the Su-35 radar to deal with "ground clutter" (reflections from trees and buildings), which reduces its effective detection range by 40–60%.

Ukrainian forces recovered a nearly intact Su-35 in 2022, allowing Western and Ukrainian engineers to tear down the Irbis-E radar. This provided the raw data needed to program the F-16’s EW pods to jam it more effectively.
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The standard Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile has received significant upgrades to address early bottleneck issues like engine reliability and detectability.

Manufacturer Fire Point is replacing the repurposed Soviet-era aviation engines (AI-25) with a custom-designed low-bypass turbofan engine optimized specifically for low-altitude flight.

The airframe is now constructed in just 6 hours using automated carbon-fiber winding (previously fiberglass), which significantly reduces its radar signature.

Upgraded navigation now allows it to fly at altitudes below 40–50 meters, skimming the terrain to evade russian air defenses.

Output is increasing from 3 units per day to a target of 7 units per day as new production lines come online. To mitigate the risk of air attacks, manufacturing occurs in roughly 30 secret, decentralized locations across Ukraine.

Range is 3,000 km (capable of reaching 90% of russian defense industries). A 1,150 kg payload (roughly 2.5x the warhead weight of a US Tomahawk). Cost are approx. $500,000 to $850,000 per unit, making them significantly cheaper than Western strategic missiles.

A specialized plant for solid rocket fuel is located at Skrydstrup Air Base, Denmark. It supports the Fire Point FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile and the new FP-7/FP-9 ballistic variants, providing stable fuel that is easy to store and launch.
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The Ukrainian government formally established a Space Force as a new branch of the military at the end of 2025.

The unit focuses on satellite reconnaissance, secure communications, and anti-orbital capabilities, specifically aimed at intercepting partially orbital missiles like the russian Oreshnik.

They coordinate with international partners like SpaceX, GomSpace (Denmark), and various Czech and French aerospace firms.

Ukraine is moving away from total reliance on Starlink by launching several indigenous and joint-venture satellite networks. UAsat LEO is a sovereign Starlink and planned constellation of 300 communications satellites designed by the Ukrainian company STETMAN. The first test satellite, UASAT-NANO, is scheduled for launch in October 2026 on a SpaceX rocket.

Suzir’ya aka the (Mise) Drak Satellite is a 5-satellite optical reconnaissance constellation being developed in partnership with the Czech Brno Space Cluster.

The first Drak satellite, capable of sub-one-meter resolution, is slated for launch in 2026. A total of 5 are planned in the next 5 years. The satellite is built on a larger platform than its predecessor, TROLL, which was a smaller pathfinder satellite launched in January 2025 with a lower resolution of 5 meters per pixel.

The project is funded through a mix of private companies and a high-profile crowdfunding campaign titled "Gift for Putin" (Dárek pro Putina). The estimated cost for the first satellite is roughly €6 million.

The satellite will use encrypted links to send processed data directly to Ukrainian defense forces, ensuring the information remains secure and actionable.

Ukraine also continues to operate an ICEYE SAR radar satellite, which was originally crowdfunded by the Serhiy Prytula Foundation and remains the only sovereign satellite currently providing high-resolution images in all weather conditions.

Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) has confirmed successful secret tests of an air-launch space system. Rockets are launched from transport aircraft at an altitude of approximately 8,000 meters.

At least two rockets have crossed the Kármán line (100km+), reaching altitudes of up to 204 km to test equipment for future rapid-response satellite deployments and exoatmospheric missile defense.
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As of April 2026, the russian economy is characterized by stagflation, a combination of high inflation and stagnant growth, as the massive military-spending boom of previous years begins to fade like predicted.

President Putin recently criticized officials as actual performance has consistently fallen short of the government's 1.3% target.

Price pressures remain high in the services sector (10%) and food products (5%). Inflation unchanged at a high 5.9%. Inflation is driven by labor shortages and the pass-through of a VAT increase from 20% to 22% implemented in January.

The Bank of russia maintains a tight stance, currently holding the key interest rate at 15%.

Unemployment is at a record low of 2.1%, which signifies a critical shortage of skilled workers due to mobilization, war casualties, and mass emigration.

The federal deficit reached 4.58 trillion rubles ($60.5 billion) in Q1 2026, already exceeding the entire target for the year.

More than 30% of russian companies were unprofitable at the start of 2026. High interest rates have significantly increased debt-servicing costs, forcing many small and medium enterprises to freeze investments or close.

A spike in oil prices caused by the war in Iran provided a temporary boost to revenues in March 2026, but this has not yet translated into broader economic recovery.

The Military sector continues to grow at roughly 20%, effectively cannibalizing resources from the rest of the economy. The civilian sector is stagnating or declining, particularly in manufacturing, retail, and construction.

As of April 2026, there is a major shift in European policy following the landslide election defeat of Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party on April 12.

The new Hungarian government, led by Péter Magyar and the Tisza party, is moving to unblock aid (€90 billion/$105 billion)(Military Aid €60 billion and €30 billion budgetary support) being a EU loan package to Ukraine while the EU and US prepare new sanctions packages against russia.

Following Orbán's defeat, the EU is moving quickly to approve its 20th package of sanctions. This package, previously blocked by the Orbán government, is expected to be discussed at an informal summit in Nicosia on April 23–24, 2026.

New measures are expected to target the russian energy industry (incl. potential bans on russian uranium) and the banking sector.

The EU has already expanded sanctions on dozens of shadow fleet vessels and individuals involved in hybrid activities such as information manipulation.

The Trump administration has signaled a maximum pressure approach, specifically targeting the shadow fleet and facilitators of russian oil. There is also legislative movement on the sanction russia act, which could impose 500% duties on russian imports and secondary sanctions on third countries buying russian oil.

Putin’s approval rating fell to 67.8%—its lowest level since the start of the full-scale war—forcing the Kremlin to temporarily ease internet and VPN restrictions to avoid further unrest.

In some russian regions, unfunded mandates (forcing local areas to pay for federal programs) have sparked public protests as basic services like healthcare collapse. In regions like Bashkortostan and Sverdlovsk, local budgets have run dry, leading to the suspension of basic healthcare services and public transport.

Following a brutal winter with widespread heating system failures (a result of redirected maintenance funds), protests have erupted in suburban Moscow and several Siberian cities. Citizens are demanding pipes, not missiles.

The January 1st tax increase has caused a visible spike in the price of basic goods. Bread riots were reported in the Tula and Oryol regions in March.

What began as small vigils of the Put Domoy (Way Home) movement has turned into coordinated weekly protests by thousands of russian women across 15 cities.

Security forces are hesitant to use the same level of violence against the wives and mothers of "heroes of the SMO" (Special Military Operation) as they do against liberal activists, fearing a massive backlash within the military itself.

State media has begun shifting blame away from Putin and toward incompetent local governors and corrupt mid-level officials to shield the President from the growing discontent.

Instead of breaking up a protest with batons, FSB agents conduct preventative conversations at the homes of organizers. They use information gathered from social media to threaten the jobs of family members or the university placement of their children.

The authorities are using the newly integrated digital draft system to send immediate military summons to young men identified via facial recognition at protest sites, effectively cleansing the streets by sending protesters to the front lines.

Rather than a nationwide blackout, the FSB uses "technical glitches" to cut mobile internet and messaging apps (like Telegram and Signal) specifically in the city districts where protests are occurring.

The FSB has been caught using AI-generated videos to show protest leaders confessing to receiving payments from Ukrainian or Western intelligence, aiming to alienate them from their more conservative, patriotic followers.

When a protest in a region like Bashkortostan threatens to get out of control, the Kremlin often authorizes a one-time "social stabilization grant."

This is a temporary cash injection to settle overdue wages or repair a local boiler room, essentially buying a few weeks of silence.

The FSB has set up state-sponsored Alternative Committees of Soldiers' Mothers. These groups look identical to the real protest groups but focus on patience and patriotic duty, effectively diluting the message of the actual protesters and sowing confusion among the families.

[kellyhound]

The Ukrainian drone attack on the Tuapse oil refinery on the night of April 27–28, 2026, was the third major strike on this facility in less than two weeks.

According to officials, the massive fire that raged for over 15 hours has finally been localized as of Wednesday morning. More than 312 firefighters and 73 vehicles were deployed to battle the blaze in what the regional governor described as heroic conditions.

The strike specifically targeted the ELOU-AVT-12 unit, a critical primary crude oil distillation unit modernized in 2013 that handles up to 12 million tons of oil annually. At least four storage tanks were set ablaze.

Residents living near the refinery, specifically on streets like Pushkin and Koshkin, were evacuated to temporary shelters in local schools due to intense smoke and the risk of the fire spreading.

Water supply in parts of Tuapse has been suspended following power failures at pumping stations linked to the refinery fire.

The refinery, owned by Rosneft, had already been largely halted since the first strike on April 16. This latest attack effectively ensures the facility remains offline for the foreseeable future. It produced 240,000 barrels per day.

90% of the refinery's output (incl. diesel, naphtha, and fuel oil) is usually exported.

Because the port can no longer ship oil, russian companies have been forced to cut national crude production by an estimated 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in April alone—the sharpest drop in six years.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the strike, characterizing the refinery as a legitimate military target used to fuel russian forces.

President Vladimir Putin described the strikes as attacks on civilian infrastructure and warned of severe environmental consequences.

Global oil prices (Brent crude oil) rose above $120 per barrel following the attacks and the simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which partially offsets russia's revenue losses but increases the cost of every lost barrel to the Kremlin.

The European Union recently officially listed the Port of Tuapse in its 20th sanctions package, specifically targeting its role in the shadow fleet.

The attack was carried out by domestically developed Ukrainian long-range drones launched by the Unmanned Systems Forces and the SBU.

Residents reported more than a dozen loud explosions over 2 hours, with groups of drones approaching from the sea at low altitudes to bypass air defenses.

While russia claimed to have shot down 186 drones across various regions that night, multiple confirmed impacts at the refinery prove a significant breach of local defenses.

[WhiskeyOutpost]

Imagine being the guy in charge of protecting Russia's petroleum assets from enemy action. Not a fun job right now

I did not expect to see this level of successful targeting of Russia's petroleum sector more than four years after the war's start. Given Russia's monolithic economy, Ukraine is doing exactly what it should be doing, to break the back of the enemy's war machine.