[marekparek]

Originally Posted by SDI ↗

From a military point of view all these current operations are insignificant. Small towns, alot villages...a few km forward, a few km backward....for me its more or less just a static meat grinder. From 40.000 recuited Wagners, 30.000 are already gone (kia, wia, mia, pow, deserted, executed). The prison population of the Rus Federation is as low as never before in history. Congratulations.

What Russia needs is a massive operational breakthrough to threaten / encircle main UKR population centres and/or large deteachments of the UKR army.

For this the time is running out. RUS only has one season left for an successful Blitzkrieg-like breakthrough. They started the War with 17.000.000 (17 million) 155mm artillery shells and used roughly a cadency of 30.000 shells per day during their offensive operations of the last year. Now the stockpile is molten down and russia consumes more than its able to produce.
Its also not possible to get significant stocks from North Korea, due to the Trans-Siberian railway bottleneck. Its just not possible to move that much ammo trains over to the European theatre. Similar issue as during WW1 and WW2, it never has been possible to supply russian war effort from the Far Eastern side of the country. Other allies, which might support Rus, are nowhere to be seen.

So Russia has one shot left in its gun. Its this spring or maybe towards end of the winter before the mud period kicks in. Western aid is currently rather weak. Politicians from alot countries are currently travelling around the world to convince certain players from releasing their 155mm HE stocks (mainly South Korea, Pakistan, France..those have significant stockpiles, but there are some minor players as well).

As soon as we go towards the middle of the upcoming year, the situation for UKR will improve massivly. US and others were busy to expand thei production lines. Within this year US will reach rates of 15000 155m shells per month. The Rheinmetall Ceo stated that they'll expand to a capacity of several 100k of 155mm shells per year. There are of course countless minor players.

So thats where the decision will take place. I focused on 155mm artillery shells just as prime example, cause its imho the single most important item to win the war. Ofc there's alot more like this. Over the year nato tank models will arrive, there are rumors of european HIMARs production lines, as well as one for Patriots and so on and so on.

Russia will get weaker, UKR supplies will skyrocket over the upcoming year. And thats exactly where wars where lost or won. Its mainly the logistics. It simply doesn't matter who wins village X or loses village Y. Russia has to achieve something significant withing the next few months to exploit UKR's current phase of weakness...which is why I don't understand why they sacrifice that much men and material for some meaningless towns and villages. UKR seems to conserve and concentrating forces / ammo stockpiles for the upcoming spring campaign, which is probaly why they just slowly retreat and let russia waste mobiks / wagners.

I agree, but there are some facts, that make all predictions unreliable

At first russians will never give up unless they will be told to do so. Even if they will have 500 thousand dead, they will be still fighting

Second, there are rumours, that many mobiks are in ammo factories and Russia ramp up shell productions to levels, that are way higher then shell production of all western factories combined

Third, unstability and naivity of some western politicians can also slow down help to Ukraine.

So i think this war may take more than another year

[WhiskeyOutpost]

British Stormer HVM anti air system around Ughledar

[Rfneimad]

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1...DS5avdz_0sAAAA

Jomini is back

[WonderMomma]

Mobile death for enemy aircraft☠️

One of the components of Kyiv's air defense is mobile air defense groups, which professionally protect the sky of the capital from enemy drones and cruise missiles.

The crew with the call sign "Ryabiy" is armed with two "Stinger" missiles mounted on the body of an HMMWV off-road vehicle. Thanks to the software, the crew quickly receives information about the direction of movement of targets, and in a few minutes is ready to destroy the enemy.

[WhiskeyOutpost]

- Possible new addition that M142 HIMARS/M270 MLRS/MARS II can fire. Significant range upgrade.

[WonderMomma]

"These are the new trench products of the Russian Federation such as "Python", "Harpoon" that our drones are bringing down.

That is, the strategy: the electronic warfare is silent, the detector waits for a close approach, then the electronic warfare from close range suppresses the control channel and we lose the drone. Some kind of anti-drone gun with detection in automatic mode.

And we are still looking from the air for huge electronic warfare vehicles of the Zhitel type, and the Russian electronic warfare “goes” into the trenches.

This is just an example that the Russians do not stand still in the war of drones and we need to respond too.

And that's what I'm always afraid of. The Russians have strong electronic warfare, and when something factory goes into production, it's bad. This is not Aliexpress"

[WonderMomma]

"Battle for Bakhmut

We have prepared for you a detailed map of the battles in the Bakhmut region, which shows the changes in the front line from May 30, 2022 (when, after the fierce battles for Popasna, the enemy had a significant advance towards Bakhmut) until today. (Map in a larger size - in the first comment).

In 8 months, the Russian invaders were able to advance west from 11 to 28 kilometers. If we take the last 2 months, when the intensity in this section has increased many times, then the progress is from 2 to 10 km.

For the sake of clarity, the left part of the map shows that during the battles for Bakhmut, the Defense Forces of Ukraine were able to achieve significant success in other areas of the front - almost the entire Kharkiv region, the right-bank part of the Kherson region, was liberated from the invaders. After that, from mid-November, stabilization of the front took place."

[WonderMomma]

"A day of numerous searches: Ukrainian officials, politicians and oligarchs are under scrutiny

This morning, journalists learned that the Security Service of Ukraine and the State Bureau of Investigation were conducting simultaneous searches in several Ukrainian institutions, officials, and MPs.

▪️Ihor Kolomoisky, oligarch, politician

According to media reports, the searches are related to the investigation of fraud around Ukrtatnafta and Ukrnafta.

▪️Arsen Avakov, former Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine

The case concerns the plane crash in Brovary and the purchase of French Airbus helicopters, the former Interior Minister told reporters. According to media reports, other officials involved in the procurement were also searched.

▪️Vadym Stolyar, Kyiv developer and MP from the banned pro-russian party

The SBU confirmed the investigation to Ukrayinska Pravda. Details are promised later. According to unofficial reports, the case against the businessman and MP is related to terrorist financing.

▪️The leadership of the Kyiv tax office

According to journalists, SBI investigators are investigating the fact of illegal receipt of VAT refunds from the state budget, which resulted in the diversion of more than UAH 30 billion of public funds.

▪️Defense Ministry officials

According to media sources, the Prosecutor General's Office has served suspicion notices to former Deputy Director of Public Procurement Khmelnytsky, former Deputy Minister Shapovalov, and former Deputy Director of Promoboronexport Tereshchenko.

▪️State Customs Service

The head of the "Servant of the People" faction announced the dismissal of the entire management of the customs service. He also confirmed the searches of other officials."

[WonderMomma]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

▪️The leadership of the Kyiv tax office

According to journalists, SBI investigators are investigating the fact of illegal receipt of VAT refunds from the state budget, which resulted in the diversion of more than UAH 30 billion of public funds.

"Investigators from the State Bureau of Investigation have searched the home of Oksana Datiy, the acting head of the Kyiv tax service. She is suspected of multimillion-dollar shadow schemes worth more than UAH 15 billion. During the searches, large sums of money, expensive jewelry, and two cars worth $150,000 were found in her possession. She also has three apartments in Kyiv worth a million dollars and a house near the capital.

The media reports that Datiy also had a "wish list", including a fur coat, a million dollars and a Breguet watch."

[WonderMomma]

1-2. "It is stated that the cartridge for the Vasylyok mortar is loaded with Ukrainian improved 82mm mortar mines O-832DU produced by the UOP, which were introduced not so long ago."

3. "CGI video of Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) soon to be approved to Ukraine."