[Faust]

Okay so in this case would you both at least agree that the most current ISW assessment is incorrect?

[Rfneimad]

And they had to give up Kherson to have enough manpower to get this far. Now they are probably going to direct the new somewhat better trained mobiks into the perceived weakness in dill lines here, only to get fucked somewhere else when the new very well trained and really well equipped fresh dill units enter the fray.

[Rfneimad]

I dont even read ISW anymore, Reporting From Ukraine guy sums it up enough for me. Reisner is best overall picture and I apprecriate his pessimism, but hes too busy with his new command to do more updates I think.

[Faust]

Okay well in anyway it is great that everybody is still posting although I wish we would hear from Boneface

(I hope you are boxing with some illegal Mexicans that just jumped the border instead of being in Ukraine )

[WhiskeyOutpost]

Originally Posted by Faust ↗

Okay well in anyway it is great that everybody is still posting although I wish we would hear from Boneface

(I hope you are boxing with some illegal Mexicans that just jumped the border instead of being in Ukraine )

Boneface is MIA. Haven't heard from him since around 12/5.

[WonderMomma]

"Terrorist Girkin-Strelkov says the goals of "special military operation" were never defined. He says the goal should be that Ukraine will stop to exist."

[SDI]

Originally Posted by Rfneimad ↗

And they are right, its an insignificant town and while Bakhmut is slowly being surrounded its not gonna happen imminently and lead to a cauldron that will facilitate Russian circle jerking.

Its just Russia wasting shit while the Dills up their kill count and try to preserve their forces. Remember Severodonetsk?

From a military point of view all these current operations are insignificant. Small towns, alot villages...a few km forward, a few km backward....for me its more or less just a static meat grinder. From 40.000 recuited Wagners, 30.000 are already gone (kia, wia, mia, pow, deserted, executed). The prison population of the Rus Federation is as low as never before in history. Congratulations.

What Russia needs is a massive operational breakthrough to threaten / encircle main UKR population centres and/or large deteachments of the UKR army.

For this the time is running out. RUS only has one season left for an successful Blitzkrieg-like breakthrough. They started the War with 17.000.000 (17 million) 155mm artillery shells and used roughly a cadency of 30.000 shells per day during their offensive operations of the last year. Now the stockpile is molten down and russia consumes more than its able to produce.
Its also not possible to get significant stocks from North Korea, due to the Trans-Siberian railway bottleneck. Its just not possible to move that much ammo trains over to the European theatre. Similar issue as during WW1 and WW2, it never has been possible to supply russian war effort from the Far Eastern side of the country. Other allies, which might support Rus, are nowhere to be seen.

So Russia has one shot left in its gun. Its this spring or maybe towards end of the winter before the mud period kicks in. Western aid is currently rather weak. Politicians from alot countries are currently travelling around the world to convince certain players from releasing their 155mm HE stocks (mainly South Korea, Pakistan, France..those have significant stockpiles, but there are some minor players as well).

As soon as we go towards the middle of the upcoming year, the situation for UKR will improve massivly. US and others were busy to expand thei production lines. Within this year US will reach rates of 15000 155m shells per month. The Rheinmetall Ceo stated that they'll expand to a capacity of several 100k of 155mm shells per year. There are of course countless minor players.

So thats where the decision will take place. I focused on 155mm artillery shells just as prime example, cause its imho the single most important item to win the war. Ofc there's alot more like this. Over the year nato tank models will arrive, there are rumors of european HIMARs production lines, as well as one for Patriots and so on and so on.

Russia will get weaker, UKR supplies will skyrocket over the upcoming year. And thats exactly where wars where lost or won. Its mainly the logistics. It simply doesn't matter who wins village X or loses village Y. Russia has to achieve something significant withing the next few months to exploit UKR's current phase of weakness...which is why I don't understand why they sacrifice that much men and material for some meaningless towns and villages. UKR seems to conserve and concentrating forces / ammo stockpiles for the upcoming spring campaign, which is probaly why they just slowly retreat and let russia waste mobiks / wagners.

[WhiskeyOutpost]

Well said SDI. The Russian focus on these smallish towns/villages is perplexing to me. But I guess they need to show "progress" that makes all the vatniks think there's a chance of winning. It's clear that the Russians have lost any ability to form meaningful attacks on major Ukrainian population/resource centers. They just sit back and lob Iskanders, Kalibrs and Shaheds at civil infrastructure because what other option do they have. They continue to day dream about another attack on Kyiv but that's not going to happen. Until they get their asses in gear, get better leadership and start taking some serious real estate, this is a downward spiral for them. Kremlin leadership obviously is stubborn, and I'm afraid that only total military defeat will be what pushes Russia out of Ukraine. Just as Igor Girkin says.

[WhiskeyOutpost]

- Developments at Kremmina in Luhansk oblast.

[Faust]

Originally Posted by WhiskeyOutpost ↗

Boneface is MIA. Haven't heard from him since around 12/5.

That really sucks ass. I figured he didn’t trust people with his going to Ukraine but it felt like he thought he was needed there anyway. I hope he just forgot his password or something