[Roosta]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

LOL no judgments from me. I used Safari once upon a time. Might use it again at some point in the future.

I've pasted the article here for you but not including any of the documents. The Times article didn't show the documents, they and the altered versions came out on Telegram after this article.

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/u...an-russia.html

Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation
Classified documents detailing secret American and NATO plans have appeared on Twitter and Telegram.

The leaked documents do not provide specific battle plans but they offer a snapshot of time — the American and Ukrainian view, as of March 1, of what Ukrainian troops might need for the campaign.

April 6, 2023

WASHINGTON — Classified war documents detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russian troops were posted this week on social media channels, senior Biden administration officials said.

The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users that is widely available in Russia.

Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.

The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, represent a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine.

Biden officials were working to get them deleted but had not, as of Thursday evening, succeeded.

“We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, the deputy press secretary at the Pentagon.

The documents do not provide specific battle plans, like how, when, and where Ukraine intends to launch its offensive, which American officials say is likely coming in the next month or so. And because the documents are five weeks old, they offer a snapshot of time — the American and Ukrainian view, as of March 1, of what Ukrainian troops might need for the campaign.

To the trained eye of a Russian war planner, field general or intelligence analyst, however, the documents no doubt offer many tantalizing clues and insights. The documents mention, for instance, the expenditure rate of HIMARS — American-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems, which can launch attacks against targets like ammunition dumps, infrastructure and concentrations of troops, from a distance. The Pentagon has not said publicly how fast Ukrainian troops are using the HIMARS munitions; the documents do.

Analysts said on Friday it could be difficult to assess the impact of the documents’ disclosure on the frontline fighting now and in the coming months. Russia’s own recent offensive has struggled to make gains in eastern Ukraine, and Western analysts debate whether the Russian military, after suffering staggering casualties, is capable of mounting another or resisting a Ukrainian attack.

It was unclear how the documents ended up on social media. But pro-Russian government channels have been sharing and circulating the briefing slides, military analysts said.

The analysts warned that documents released by Russian sources could be selectively altered to present the Kremlin’s disinformation.

“Whether these documents are authentic or not, people should take care with anything released by Russian sources,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Va.

For example, one of the slides said 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers had been killed while Ukraine had suffered as many as 71,500 troop deaths. The Pentagon and other analysts have estimated that Russia has suffered far more casualties, with closer to 200,000 killed and injured, while Ukraine has had more than 100,000 killed and injured.

Nonetheless, analysts said parts of the documents appeared authentic and would provide Russia with valuable information such as the timetables for the delivery of weapons and troops, Ukrainian troop buildup numbers and other military details.

A document labeled “top secret” offers the “Status of the Conflict as of 1 Mar.” On that day, Ukrainian officials were at an American base in Wiesbaden, Germany, for war game sessions, and a day later, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the supreme allied commander for Europe, visited the sessions.

Another document includes columns that list Ukrainian troop units, equipment and training, with schedules for January through April. The document contains a summary of 12 combat brigades that are being assembled, with nine of them apparently being trained and supplied by the United States and other NATO allies. Of those nine brigades, the documents said that six would be ready by March 31 and the rest by April 30. A Ukrainian brigade has about 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers, analysts said.

The document said that equipment delivery times would impact training and readiness in order to meet the timeline. Total equipment needed for nine brigades, the document said, was more than 250 tanks and more than 350 mechanized vehicles.

That the documents could be posted on a widely dispersed social media channel, and presumably get into the hands of Russian officials, is a big coup for Moscow at a time when Russia had appeared to be trailing the United States in intelligence gathering in Ukraine.

The leak is the first Russian intelligence breakthrough that has been made public since the war began. Throughout the war, the United States has provided Ukraine with information on command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in the Russian military lines. Such real-time intelligence has allowed the Ukrainians to target Russian forces, kill senior generals and force ammunition supplies to be moved farther from the Russian front lines, though U.S. officials say Ukraine has played the decisive role in planning and execution of those strikes.

But early on during the war, Ukrainian officials were hesitant about sharing their battle plans with the United States, for fear of leaks, American and European officials said. As recently as last summer, American intelligence officials said they often had a better understanding of Russia’s military plans than of Ukraine’s.

Concerned that sharing their operation plans could also highlight weaknesses and discourage continued American support, the Ukrainians were closely guarding them even as American intelligence was gathering precise details on what the Kremlin was ordering and Russian commanders were planning.

The intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States loosened up considerably last fall, and the two countries have been working closely on options for a Ukrainian offensive.

But an intelligence leak of this sort, posted on social media and available around the world, is bound to harm intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States.

Attachment 1169975

A rather sketchy development.

[Roosta]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

lol well I just hit F12 and disable javascript in the dev console and refresh. I like mah cookies.

Choc Chip are the best !

[SamuraiDes]

can someone explain why russia is only sending in small parts of troops, and lone tanks vs Ukraine?

why dont they go full ww2 sending tons of t-34s off the streets with soviets storming the capital?

also the number of men, they send over 12 mil of men on WW2 to fight the Germans, but on ukraine, why they send so little? its like 200k dead only, which is nothing compared to ww2

[WhiskeyOutpost]

Originally Posted by SamuraiDes ↗

can someone explain why russia is only sending in small parts of troops, and lone tanks vs Ukraine?

why dont they go full ww2 sending tons of t-34s off the streets with soviets storming the capital?

also the number of men, they send over 12 mil of men on WW2 to fight the Germans, but on ukraine, why they send so little? its like 200k dead only, which is nothing compared to ww2

These are excellent questions.

They tried to storm Kiev in the first days of the war and they failed miserably. The huge convoys of Russian vehicles not doing anything for days - they were stalled because of effective Ukrainian defense which caused large amounts of Russian casualties. It didn't take long for what remained of those huge convoys to retreat back into Belarus and Russia.

The Russians have tried many times sending in massive WW2 style infantry wave attacks, they don't seem to work often as Ukrainians appear to have very effective defense prectices and have learned from previous battles (Severodonyetsk). This results for Russia an unacceptable amount of KIA/WIA that hamper their future operations. You may have noticed Russia has taken little territory since the summer. This has caused Russian military leaders to be more conservative.

As a result they have adopted the practice of sending in small teams to probe the Ukrainian lines for weakness. If they find one, they exploit it and send in larger amounts of troops and armor into that spot to press further. Rinse, repeat.

As for why they don't just send in huge amounts of armored vehicles, well they did that in the early parts of the war and it didn't work. They are also losing huge amounts of "modern" vehicles and are currently sending in old T-55's (designed during/after WW2). This is after they resorted to sending in T-62M's (old) with little or no ERA (explosive reactive armor).

Russia has a fuck load of tanks, APC's and vehicles but their reckless tactics and incompetent leadership are taking a toll on this.

Refer to the Chechen war Battle of Grozny in the 90's and what happened to Russian units there. The Ukrainians clearly have read the history books and are employing what has worked against Russia in the past. Not a whole lot has changed.

As for why Russia is not sending in more people - they don't have the ability to mobilize, train and equip that many soldiers as they could in the past. Plus so many military aged males have already fled the country. Plus, the insane level of corruption that is Russia today which affects the amount of "stuff" that reaches the front lines in Ukraine.

[scorpion9]

Originally Posted by WhiskeyOutpost ↗

[...]
As for why Russia is not sending in more people - they don't have the ability to mobilize, train and equip that many soldiers as they could in the past. Plus so many military aged males have already fled the country. Plus, the insane level of corruption that is Russia today which affects the amount of "stuff" that reaches the front lines in Ukraine.

I think this is one of the main reasons why Russia doesn't commit to full zerg rush. This and the political reason of it being illegal under the Russian law. Russia hasn't declared a war on Ukraine yet, because their propaganda narrative is that they are not at war with Ukraine, but a few nazis and NATO.

If they wanted to fully mobilize, they would have to declare a war...on NATO or Ukraine. War with nato would be a loss for Russia...and probably for everyone, since it would end up being a nuclear war eventually. War with Ukraine would break the year-long propaganda narrative. And...Russia doesnt have the capability to mobilize that many men at the moment. There is noone to enforce conscription at such a level. Soldiers wouldn't just show up, or would resist conscription. Imagine 12 000 000 men fighting back. How many military police/enforcers would you need to drag in that many soldiers. Who would train them. The first, very downplayed mobilization already sent a million Russians into exile( the top most wealthiest/educated russians). Total mobilization would ensure that only Retards remained in the country.

[WhiskeyOutpost]

Originally Posted by scorpion9 ↗

If they wanted to fully mobilize, they would have to declare a war...on NATO or Ukraine. War with nato would be a loss for Russia...and probably for everyone, since it would end up being a nuclear war eventually.

Very good point. I think Russian top leadership realizes that they are doomed if they use a nuke, any type, fired at any target. The international response would smash Russia as we know it. I'm pretty sure Putin, Medvedev and the other amoral vermin don't want that.

But then again. If they're backed into even more of a corner they might adopt the perspective of "If we can't win, no one else can. Press the button." A scary thing.

Russians could end this, but they're not ending it. They clearly need some assistance.

[cardsharksam]

It's about time that America and nato sent in there troops let's see how big Russia is then I've lost all respect for Russia and the Russian way of life little puppets answering to putin fucking joke

[WhiskeyOutpost]

If I see a single T-34 being used by Russians in Ukraine, I am going to absolutely lose my mind

[Roosta]

[WonderMomma]

Ukrainian anti-aircraft battery. lol