[Guns N' Coffee]

[Guns N' Coffee]

The Telegraph

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.

It has also been assessed that the mercenary force had only 8,000 fighters rather than the 25,000 claimed and faced likely defeat in any attempt to take the Russian capital.

Vladimir Putin will now try to assimilate Wagner Group soldiers into the Russian military and take out its former leaders, according to insights shared with The Telegraph.

The analysis offers clues into the mystery of why Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, called off his mutinous march on Moscow on Saturday just hours before reaching the capital.

There remains speculation about what formal deal was struck, if any. The Kremlin said on Saturday that Prigozhin would head to Belarus in exchange for a pardon from charges of treason.

There has been no comment from Prigozhin over the suggestion. It also remains unclear if Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, is set to be demoted or fired, as Prigozhin demanded.

On Sunday, the Russian MP Andrey Gurulyov, a prominent Kremlin propagandist, said there was “no option” but for Prigozhin and another high-profile Wagner figure to be executed.

Putin has not been seen in public since addressing the nation on Saturday morning, but a pre-recorded interview filmed earlier in the week was played on state television on Sunday.

In the interview, Putin expressed confidence in realising plans for what he continues to call the “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Reports emerged that the United States was aware of a possible Wagner mutiny days before it happened, with The Washington Post quoting an official saying they knew “something was up”.

Figures in Washington, DC were said to have become concerned that Putin could lose control of his nuclear arsenal if a full coup was mounted against the Kremlin.

Russia’s ministry of defence said Ukraine used the chaos unleashed by Prigozhin’s coup attempt to step up its attacks around Bakhmut in Donbas. On Sunday, Ukraine’s military said that it had taken ground.

“Any chaos behind the enemy lines works in our interests,” said Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba.

The British ministry of defence also said that Ukraine had increased its attacks over the past few days and had refined their tactics against “well prepared” Russian defences.

“Ukrainian units are making gradual but steady tactical progress in key areas,” it said in its morning intelligence briefing.

Ukraine launched its much-vaunted counteroffensive against Russia’s frontline around three weeks ago but had made slow progress.

Analysts have said that the distraction of Prigozhin’s coup attempt may have weakened Russia’s frontline.

The Kremlin didn’t withdraw any units to defend Moscow against Wagner fighters but Prigozhin called for regular army soldiers to desert.

‘So this raises profound questions’
On Sunday, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, said that the armed uprising in Russia exposed “real cracks” in Putin’s authority after he was forced into an amnesty deal.

Mr Blinken told CBS News that the development marked “a direct challenge to Putin’s authority. So this raises profound questions, it shows real cracks”.

The impact of the Wagner mutiny on the battlefield in Ukraine remains to be seen. Ukraine said fresh gains in its counter-offensive had been made over the weekend.

The Kremlin has said that Wagner soldiers who did not take part in the coup will be taken into the Russian defence forces while claiming that those who did not will no longer be prosecuted.

Meanwhile, members of Russia’s convict army have issued threats against Prigozhin, claiming he betrayed them by abandoning the Kremlin coup attempt.

A video posted online by the prisoners-turned-fighters accused Prigozhin of “cowardice”, saying his supporters had been “double crossed” and now faced retribution.

One of the Storm-Z soldiers could be heard saying that Prigozhin had “promised everything” to them and then “turned the steering wheel in the other direction”.

[Faust]

Originally Posted by kellyhound ↗

On the other hand, although the global population condemning Russia’s actions are in the minority, they do represent the vast majority of the world’s economy. Seventy percent of global GDP belongs to countries supporting the West’s position, with 61 percent of the world’s GDP and 16 percent of its population belonging to countries actively condemning Russia.

Most people from China, Africa and India have no clue what's going on as most struggling to survive and don't care about what's going on outside their country.

But this isn't a discussion thread for off topic related content.

Yeah my numbers were off as well, I said 4.5 billion (ballparked it lol) but in reality it should be 6.8 billion based on your 84% not actively condemning Russia number, but yeah you are right those are mostly struggling to survive.

Btw Putin held an address and now Wagner PMC will be permanently stationed in Belarus, to what purpose, nobody knows (aside from Putin and his friends)

[WonderMomma]

"British intelligence sources say (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...wagner-family/) Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin stopped his "offensive on Moscow" - The Telegraph"


"Putin delivers a "sensational" address after a coup attempt in Russia.

▪Armed rebellion would have been suppressed in any case

▪The organizers of the mutiny betrayed the people, which is exactly what the neo-Nazis in Kyiv and the West wanted, they wanted Russians to kill each other

▪The vast majority of Wagner soldiers are patriots, they were used in the dark

▪I am grateful to those Wagner soldiers who stopped and did not go to bloodshed

▪I suggest that the Wagner soldiers sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense and return home or go to Belarus"



"Russian Telegram channel VCHK-OGPU: "Source":

"Moods in Shoigu's environment are panicked. He himself is isolated. Staff decisions might be announced by tomorrow. Operation-investigative group has been formed and is at work."

"Shoigu is currently in isolation under the watch of personal security, comprised of FSS employees. Departments of FSB and Investigative Committee started studying materials of criminal cases on theft in MoD back on Thursday"."

[Guns N' Coffee]

Prigozhin Just Got Double-Crossed by Duplicitous Putin

On Saturday night, with his heavily armed mercenaries closing in on Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin abruptly announced that he was shutting down his insurrection after a negotiated settlement that would allow him to walk away peacefully.

Just two days later, the Russian authorities leaked word that the agreement was already toast.

President Vladimir Putin appeared to confirm that Prigozhin had no ‘get out of jail free card’ in an address to the nation late on Monday, in which he said that “the organizers of this rebellion” would “be brought to justice.”

After one of the most extraordinary days in modern Russian history, which saw Prigozhin seize the military’s southern command HQ in Rostov-on-Don before a column of his fighters sped toward Moscow virtually unopposed, it was announced that the former Putin confidant would be granted an amnesty and allowed to head into exile in Belarus.

Prigozhin—who forged his notorious reputation by running the world’s most bloodthirsty mercenary army—laughably said the deal was struck to ensure that no “blood will be shed” even though his men had already shot down several Russian helicopters and a military plane, according to reports from Russian military bloggers and the Ukrainian air force spokesman, killing up to 39 Russians.

No details of the deal struck in talks with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko were announced by media-savvy Prigozhin himself over the weekend. It was reported in the Russian press that the agreement would see his men spared in order to rejoin the fight in Ukraine under contract to the Ministry of Defense and that the Wagner boss would be granted amnesty for his treasonous mutiny and allowed to drive off into the sunset.

On Monday, a new audio recording of Prigozhin was released by his press service saying that Lukashenko had brokered a deal to keep his Wagner Group in business.

He claimed Wagner had been due to get shut down next Saturday. Lukashenko offered to find a way for the legal operation of Wagner to continue, Prigozhin said.

He made no reference to the supposed deal to keep himself or his comrades out of prison.

A few hours earlier, signs first emerged that the deal may not have been struck in good faith. The Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported that the criminal case against Prigozhin had not—in fact—been dropped. The official state news agency, TASS, soon confirmed that the investigation into the mutiny that humiliated Putin was ongoing.

A Prosecutor General’s Office source was quoted as saying: “The criminal case against Prigozhin did not stop. The investigation continues.”

Prigozhin could face 20 years behind bars.

There was a glimmer of hope for Prigozhin on Monday night when Putin said he would keep his word and allow Wagner fighters to go into exile in Belarus. “I promise those of Wagner who want to go to Belarus, I will keep my promise,” he said. But it was far from clear if Prigozhin would be included in the guarantee, as surely Putin is not so weak that he could pretend the Wagner boss was not part of the insurrection leadership.

His location is currently unknown and he has not been seen in public since driving off the Russian military base in a civilian car.

Even loyal Kremlin propagandists had been furious that Putin was apparently going to let Prigozhin get away with turning on his own military and exposing the weakness of the Kremlin. The Daily Beast reported that the flagship propaganda show Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovyov was brimming with disgust for such an act of presidential leniency.

“I am firmly convinced that during wartime, traitors have to be destroyed! Today, no matter who says what, whatever fairy tales they are telling, a bullet to the forehead is the sole salvation for Prigozhin,” said State Duma deputy Andrey Gurulyov, a retired army officer. “Treason cannot be forgiven under any circumstances!”

Letting Prigozhin get away with such a fundamental criminal act was all the more baffling since Putin had personally given a commitment to strike back forcefully in an address to the nation on Saturday morning. “Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will be punished inevitably. They will answer before the law and our people,” he said. “Our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal.”

There was widespread confusion on Saturday night about why it had been Lukashenko who negotiated the climbdown with Prigozhin. It was seen as a yet another sign of Putin’s weakness that he could not deal with his former contract caterer himself.

Perhaps it would make more sense for Putin to outsource the negotiations if he never intended to stick to the agreement, although such a slippery and duplicitous approach would do little to repair the Russian leader’s faltering reputation as a strong man, which suffered a decisive blow this weekend.

[Guns N' Coffee]

Politico
‘The People Are Silent’: The Main Reason the Wagner Mutiny Bodes Ill for Putin

Prigozhin crossed a line. But it was the reaction of ordinary Russians that should worry the Russian president the most.



With a deal reportedly worked out by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the Wagner mutiny appears to be over. The commander and owner of the “private military company,” Yevgeny Prigozhin, promised to turn the troops back to the Ukrainian border, while he himself was reportedly going into exile in Belarus.

What Prigozhin called the March for Justice is likely to be remembered not so much for the actual military operation as for what it revealed about Russia. Like a powerful searchlight, the 48-hour rebellion illuminated the murky innards of the Putin regime including the military’s divided allegiances, the seeming hollowness of the people’s support for the regime and, by extension, the regime’s shaky legitimacy. The images — of Russian President Vladimir Putin, a famous night owl, addressing the nation in a dark suit and tie early on a Saturday morning; of mangled Russian helicopters felled by Wagner forces; and of residents of Rostov-on-Don jeering local police after the mutiny was ended — do not bode well for the Kremlin.

Prigozhin had been pushing the envelope for months. Yet until very recently his obscenity-laden Telegram rants were directed at the Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the chief of general staff Valery Gerasimov. He hugely upped the ante this past Friday, when he dismissed as fabrications the reasons for invading Ukraine: a preemptive strike against NATO’s alleged aggression and protecting the inhabitants of Russia-occupied Donbas from supposedly relentless Ukrainian shelling. Those were Putin’s pretexts, so while Prigozhin blamed Shoigu for lying to Putin and didn’t name Putin directly, everyone knew that the criticism was ultimately directed at the president.

And so Putin finally decided to end the long-running feud between Prigozhin and Shoigu and Gerasimov. After the Wagner chief refused to sign a “contract” subjugating his troops to the ministry of defense, Prigozhin was already guilty of insubordination and the military leaders’ hands were untied. Whether or not they ordered missile strikes on the Wagner camp, as Prigozhin claimed, he apparently opted for dying like a soldier in a battle against Shoigu’s and Gerasimov’s regular troops to facing a firing squad for treason. (And when a third choice suddenly appeared, the offer of exile in Belarus in return for halting the advance on Moscow, Prigozhin apparently judged that there was enough of a guarantee in the Lukashenko deal keep him alive — even though, a virtual Putin stooge, Lukashenko is hardly in a position to shield the rebel from Putin’s retribution.)

Coups are a tricky thing for an authoritarian. Address the nation too quickly and you are deemed panicked. Wait longer and you come over as indecisive. Putin waited 24 hours. It is now clear why: Once you call it “treason” and threaten the mutineers with “tough” and “imminent” punishment, you’d better follow through. Putin likely hesitated because he doubted that his forces would follow those kinds of orders and he could look impotent as a result.

He was right. Regular troops appear to have melted away before the advancing Wagner forces. There was no resistance even in Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of the Southern Military District. Apart from a few helicopter gunships, shot down by Wagner, no one attacked the “muzykanty,” or “musicians,” as the Wagnerites like to call themselves. Where were the bomber and jet fighter pilots, who could have pummeled the advancing columns from on high as they marched from the Ukrainian border to Rostov-on-Don?

Even more significant in the long run was the reaction of the people. Coups — and revolutions — are decided not by how many storm the palaces but by how many come to defend them. Indifference helps the plotters. The last line in Pushkin’s tragedy Boris Godunov encapsulates a key condition of a successful rebellion: “Narod bezmolvstvuet.” The people are silent.

In fact, things turned out even more dire than that for Putin. The residents of Rostov were worse than silent. Instead of deploring the Wagner takeover, they appeared in videos welcoming Prigozhin’s “musicians.” Instead of waving portraits of Putin and Russian flags, they brought the insurgents water and candy.

Putin is an avid (and shamelessly mendacious) amateur historian who decries both the end of the Russian Empire and the collapse of the Soviet Union. In his address to the nation, he replaced his favorite trope of the 1941 Nazi invasion with the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution as the calamity from which he was defending the Motherland. That was a telling substitution. Abandoned both by the people of Petrograd and the troops of Petrograd Military District, the Provisional Government was overthrown by the Bolsheviks with only two regiments, two armored cars, and two cars armed with anti-aircraft guns. Was this the memory he was guarding against in his address to the nation?

It proved far from a groundless foreboding. Neither the top military brass, nor the prime minister nor the leaders of the Duma parties, nor the mayor of Moscow backed Putin publicly. The fissures in his support were also evident with the Russian people, who appeared at best indifferent to the outcome of mutiny and at worse, like the residents of Rostov, welcoming it.

In the Soviet classic satire “The Twelve Chairs,” when the charming rogue hero senses that fortune is about to shift his way, he shouts, “The ice is breaking!”

The rebellion was ended by the man who started it, and the ice did not break. But we can all see the cracks.

[Faust]

So the British intelligence believes that Putin was in control? Or how should we read that message. Not trolling just wondering what the take home message is

[Roosta]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

Another video of Prigozhin.

I bet that car is full of cash.

[Guns N' Coffee]

Russia drops charges against Prigozhin and others who took part in brief rebellion

The Associated Press
Updated Tue, June 27, 2023 at 3:36 AM PDT

Russian authorities said Tuesday they have closed a criminal investigation into the armed rebellion led by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, with no charges against him or any of the other participants.

The Federal Security Service, or FSB, said its investigation found that those involved in the mutiny “ceased activities directed at committing the crime,” so the case would not be pursued.

The announcement was the latest twist in a series of stunning events in recent days that have brought the gravest threat so far to President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power amid the 16-month-old war in Ukraine.

Over the weekend, the Kremlin pledged not to prosecute Prigozhin and his fighters after he stopped the revolt on Saturday, even though Putin had branded them as traitors.

The charge of mounting an armed mutiny carries a punishment of up to 20 years in prison. Prigozhin escaping prosecution poses a stark contrast to how the Kremlin has treated those staging anti-government protests in Russia.

Many opposition figures in Russia have received long prison terms and are serving time in penal colonies notorious for harsh conditions.

The whereabouts of Prigozhin remained a mystery Tuesday. The Kremlin has said he would be exiled to neighboring Belarus, but neither he nor the Belarusian authorities have confirmed that.

An independent Belarusian military monitoring project Belaruski Hajun said a business jet that Prigozhin reportedly uses landed near Minsk on Tuesday morning.

The media team for Prigozhin, the 62-year-old head of the Wagner private military contractor, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close Putin ally who brokered a deal with Prigozhin to stop the uprising, didn't immediately address Prigozhin's fate in a speech Tuesday.

Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus with an iron hand for 29 years, relentlessly stifling dissent and relying on Russian subsidies and political support, portrayed the uprising as the latest development in a clash between Prigozhin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Their long-simmering personal feud has at times boiled over, and Prigozhin has said the revolt aimed to unseat Shoigu, not Putin.

Lukashenko framed the insurrection by Wagner as a significant threat, saying he placed Belarus' armed forces on a combat footing as the mutiny unfolded.

Like Putin, he couched the Ukraine war in terms of an existential threat to Russia, saying: “If Russia collapses, we all will perish under the debris.”

In a nationally televised address Monday night, Putin once again blasted organizers of the rebellion as traitors who played into the hands of Ukraine’s government and its allies. Although he was critical of Prigozhin, Putin praised the work of Wagner commanders.

That was “likely in an effort to retain them” in the Russian effort in Ukraine, because Moscow needs “trained and effective manpower” as it faces the early stages of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to a Washington-based think tank.

The Institute for the Study of War also noted that the break between Putin and Prigozhin is likely beyond repair and that providing the Wagner chief and his loyalists with Belarus as an apparent safe haven could be a trap.

Prigozhin's short-lived insurrection over the weekend has rattled Russia's leadership.

Putin sought to project stability in his speech, criticizing the uprising’s “organizers,” without naming Prigozhin. He also praised Russian unity in the face of the crisis, as well as rank-and-file Wagner fighters for not letting the situation descend into “major bloodshed.”

Putin returned to this theme in a speech Tuesday to soldiers and law enforcement officers in the Kremlin, praising them for averting “a civil war.” He again declared that the army and people didn’t support the mutiny, but avoided mentioning Prigozhin by name.

On Monday, Prigozhin defended his actions in a defiant audio statement. He again taunted the Russian military but said he hadn’t been seeking to stage a coup against Putin.

In another show of projecting authority, the Kremlin showed Putin meeting Monday night with top security, law enforcement and military officials, including Shoigu, whom Prigozhin had sought to remove.

Putin thanked his team for their work over the weekend, implying support for the embattled Shoigu. Earlier, the authorities released video of Shoigu reviewing troops in Ukraine.

It also wasn't clear whether he would be able to keep his mercenary force. In his speech, Putin offered Prigozhin's fighters to either come under Russia's Defense Ministry's command, leave service or go to Belarus.

Prigozhin said Monday, without elaborating, that the Belarusian leadership proposed solutions that would allow Wagner to operate “in a legal jurisdiction,” but it was unclear what that meant.

[marekparek]

Although it all looks like prepared drama for public i think this Pirozkins adventure quite stirred up all forces in russian society. Even Huilo Botox the first looks quite unconfortable. So, dont throw out your popcorn and stay tuned. We can expect some more entertaining sketches from Soviet soyuz