[akham]

Originally Posted by kellyhound ↗

This is clearly not the result of a gas cylinder or a collision with a flock of birds. Surviving passengers of the plane also vied with each other to tell about the explosion.

Note that the FlightRadar24 data shows a rapid descent (from 30,000ft) to about 10,000ft at about 4m25s into the flight. That is standard procedure when there is loss of cabin pressure.

Hittin a flock of birds ain't gonna cause that (or the inward-facing shrapnel holes in the skin of the aircraft).

In the (quite amazing) onboard video some interior panels in the cabin were dislodged - consistent with a missile hit and/or sudden loss of pressure.

Interestingly, some passenger oxygen masks dropped and others didn't. I don't recall seeing that before.

Also, this would not have been a sholder-launched (MANPAD type) missile as they have a maximum altitude of about 17,000ft. This suggests that the aircraft was shot down by a state or near-state actor.

The circumstances, and the inflight video, are going to make this a very interesting incident.

[jsundqui]

^ To the above: I read that the plane attempted to land at Grozny but didn't get permission likely due to the drone activity in the area and air defense. They decided to head back to Baku and we're hit right then at lower altitude near Grozny. It didn't happen at 30,000 ft like it seemed at first. Larger warhead would have brought it down completely.

The map below shows known path the plane took, but there is 2 hours window where there is no gps data and the strike occured somewhere during this time.

[volleyballbat]

Originally Posted by jsundqui ↗

^ To the above: I read that the plane attempted to land at Grozny but didn't get permission likely due to the drone activity in the area and air defense. They decided to head back to Baku and we're hit right then at lower altitude near Grozny. It didn't happen at 30,000 ft like it seemed at first. Larger warhead would have brought it down completely.

The map below shows known path the plane took, but there is 2 hours window where there is no gps data and the strike occured somewhere during this time.

Kadyrov regime shot it down due to Ukrainian drones last week? Horrible fate.

[houseoftechno]

Here is Juane Browne's analysis.

[kushie18]

That is why I always prefer the rear seats. First class just means first one dead!!!

[Hogmann]

Great info here too

[akham]

Originally Posted by jsundqui ↗

^ To the above: I read that the plane attempted to land at Grozny but didn't get permission likely due to the drone activity in the area and air defense. They decided to head back to Baku and we're hit right then at lower altitude near Grozny. It didn't happen at 30,000 ft like it seemed at first.

I've downloaded the KML data from FR24 and looked at it more closely, and I think this is more likely to be correct than my analysis above. The "pretty" FR24 graphs can be misleading where they don't differentiate between actual and interpolated data. (Lesson learned!)

At 04:25:20UTC the aircraft is shown at FL300 just south of Makhachkala. That is the last data point for a period of 13 minutes, the next being at 04:37UTC orbiting at 14,000ft apparently over Ardon (uncertainty due to likelihood of GPS jamming).

But regardless of the horizontal position, this data shows that the aircraft descended by about 16,000ft over a period of about 13 minutes - a rate of around 1,200ft/min. That's a normal descent rate, not an emergency descent.

[Hogmann]

Originally Posted by akham ↗

I've downloaded the KML data from FR24 and looked at it more closely, and I think this is more likely to be correct than my analysis above. The "pretty" FR24 graphs can be misleading where they don't differentiate between actual and interpolated data. (Lesson learned!)

At 04:25:20UTC the aircraft is shown at FL300 just south of Makhachkala. That is the last data point for a period of 13 minutes, the next being at 04:37UTC orbiting at 14,000ft apparently over Ardon (uncertainty due to likelihood of GPS jamming).

But regardless of the horizontal position, this data shows that the aircraft descended by about 16,000ft over a period of about 13 minutes - a rate of around 1,200ft/min. That's a normal descent rate, not an emergency descent.

Assuming they were in a constant descent for 13 minutes, yes. which is a big assumption.

[akham]

Originally Posted by Hogmann ↗

Assuming they were in a constant descent for 13 minutes, yes. which is a big assumption.

Looking at past flights on that route, the first point I talk about is near the top of descent location on previous flights. For example, this flight: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/f...28243#38717306

This discussion is about whether or not the accident flight's descent from that first point was likely to be normal or an emergency descent.

Absent direct factual information about the flight profile, I don't agree that assuming the aircraft did something similar to what happened on past flights is a "big assumption". It is the most conservative assumption, the default. Not at all certain, but unless and until there is evidence that something unusual happened between those two points its the most rational choice.

Not to mention the airline reporting that the flight diverted from Grozny due to weather.

[newjerseydeevil]

Originally Posted by houseoftechno ↗

Here is Juane Browne's analysis.

Excellent reportage. Ty.