[Bruiseviolet]

Originally Posted by Berserk ↗

"The communications and “chatter” - uncovered by British intelligence only after the Russian passenger jet tragedy - ..."
Sure.. am i the only one who suspects the Britisch intelligence probably knew before the crash that isil was in a far stadium of planning such an attack against russian civilian aircraft?
They (Britisch intel) might have been hold back since it was a nice retaliation for downing the MH17 ?

Who'd want to piss off Putin like that, though?

[DCnative]

Originally Posted by m1324 ↗

American intelligence services are becoming a joke. This false flag operation is soooo obvious, it's ridiculous.
Yeah, right, ISIS bombed a Russian plane, coincidentally after you cried the blues about Putin not doing enough against ISIS (while killing off the American backed Freedom terrorists of Syria)

I love how whenever there is a legitimate terrorist attack the tin foil hat crowd uses the word "false flag." You sir are joke.

[sunairco]

I think some people including the press seem to think that intelligence is real time. It isn't in many cases. Just because the "big 5" intelligence services are just now claiming to have intercepts of discussing an explosive being placed on the jet, doesn't mean they knew it then. Radio and telecommunications can be bulk/spectrum recorded and archived. It can take days or weeks, especially with analog intercepts to be reviewed, found, translated, and authenticated before escalating the fragments of information to higher intel services where it's compositely pieced together. Furthermore, there would be a reluctance to expose their capabilities and may put covert human assets at risk. The Russians aren't stupid. They have similar capabilities and what happens at public rhetoric and nationalistic bluster is not what's happening through diplomatic and intelligence channels. All involved have their agendas which may conflict and there is a great degree of public politics involved. There are also covert ones as well. The Russians would be wary of being fed outside intel without confirmation due to the possibilities of other motives as there are several conflicting ones involved in the Mideast.

Speaking of agendas. Putin has rode on a wave of nationalistic support and struggling to gain international relevance and influence. A bomb on the plane can be both a nightmare and godsend for him politically.

Confirmation of terrorism will galvanize the public support that's wary of another Afghanistan snafu for ground troops and retaliation. In the face of the world and his country he has little choice but to intervene decisively after showing the world he's going to clean up a mess nobody else has the fortitude to do. Odds are he's going to hit massively and hard. Wherein lies a problem. If he does, it's going to provoke another terrorism wave on his own soil between the Caucasus and Chechnya regions. They've been relatively quiet and intervention is going to stir up problems that he's probably going to act preemptively, so I'd venture a guess those regions are sweating right now.

Which brings up another point and perhaps the reason Putin has until now avoided targeting ISIS and concentrating on militias and groups targeting Assad.

It's no secret that a lot of the foreign fighters with ISIS are from the Northern Caucasus and Chechyn regions. There was essentially a covert deportation program for years of routing out suspected Muslim extremists and giving them a one way ticket out of Russia rather then prison or military intervention. In short, they just exported their problems quietly. This might be the reason that up to now, they've avoided directly targeting ISIS in Syria. At some point they've awoken to the fact in the past years that these fighters that are now battle hardened and train may return to Russian soil and foment a powerful insurgency.

Greece on the other hand not only has a tourism problem with 12-15% of thier GDP threatened to be lost. It also exposes a problem with Al Sisi's gov't. They've concentrated their resouces internally and neglected or lost control of the peripheral regions and Sinai to the Bedouins that live in the area. It's lawless in the Sinai now with little military or gov't resolve to deal with. Sharam air port had not exactly been a priority. Employees haven't been paid regularly, neglected by the central gov't and from reports, the officials there are soliciting bribes from tourists just to get through the bureaucracy and bypass security completely for $30 USD.
It that's what they would take to let someone board submitting luggage and carry ons that would bypass screening and security. Imaging how much it would take to bribe someone on the ground/cargo crew or sterile areas of the air port. Egypt is complicit in this tragedy by neglect and governance. This is going to cost the present regime dearly.

Putin is in between a rock and a hard place politically and respect. He either retaliates massively on two fronts at home and the mideast or loses face and support meanwhile the possibility of getting mired down into another nightmare that he can't afford.

[dwizzy22]

Originally Posted by Desensitisation ↗

If it turns out IS did manage to shoot this plane down, I hope like hell Putin goes full-retard and nukes the hell out of the place. I really do.

You must be a tard if you wish nuclear fallout anywhere on this planet.

[kellyhound]

The IS branch suspected of bringing down a Russian airliner in Egypt had eluded a security dragnet by operating in secretive cells inspired by a leader who used to import clothes for a living, Egyptian intelligence officials say.

Western officials are increasingly pointing the finger of blame at Sinai Province, which has focused on killing Egyptian soldiers and police since the military toppled President Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013 after mass protests.

If solid evidence emerges it attacked the aircraft, that would instantly propel the group to the top of the jihadi ladder, with one of the deadliest attacks since al-Qaida flew planes into the World Trade Center in New York in 2001.

If a bomb knocked Airbus A321 out of the sky, that would challenge Egypt's assertions that it had brought under control militants who have carried out high-profile attacks on senior government officials and Western targets.

Security experts and investigators have said the plane is unlikely to have been struck from the outside and Sinai militants are not believed to have any missiles capable of striking a jet at 30,000 feet.

Sinai Province is partly the product of Egypt's efforts to eliminate militancy, which has threatened the most populous Arab country for decades, according to the intelligence sources.

The three officials, who closely follow the Sinai-based insurgency, say many of its fighters fled to Syria after Morsi was removed and then army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi unleashed security forces on Islamists, both moderate and radical.

Sinai Province's leader - a 42-year-old former clothes importer known by his nom de guerre Abu Osama al-Masri - studied at Al-Azhar, a 1,000-year old Egyptian center for Islamic learning that supports the government, said the officials.

But like others who learned in a center known for its moderation, he was radicalized and took up arms in Sinai before heading to Syria with about 20 followers when security forces clamped down on Islamists after Morsi's departure, the sources said.

'THEY BECAME EXPERTS'

There, he and the other fighters gained experience that would prove useful upon their eventual return to the Sinai, when they were approached by Islamic State and embraced its goal of creating a caliphate across the Muslim world.

It seems they were mesmerized by Islamic State's mysterious Iraqi leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, said the officials.

Islamic State sent arms and cash by boat from Iraq to neighboring Libya, where militants have thrived in the chaos that followed the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, said another intelligence official.

A porous border then enabled Baghdadi's supporters to travel to Sinai, on the other side of Egypt, to deliver the goods to Islamist militant comrades, the officials added.

"Other militants taught them how to evade capture and they learned how to shoot accurately and assemble bombs," said one of the intelligence officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"They became experts."

Will McCants, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, said that not a lot is known about the working relationship between the Islamic State's Sinai affiliate and the movement's central leadership.

But the Egyptian group - like other affiliates - appears to enjoy considerable autonomy.

The state security crackdown launched against the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists has gained the Islamic State's Sinai branch significant local support, allowing its fighters to hide and operate among ordinary people, he said.

SECRETIVE

During Morsi's time, security officials allege, militants from al-Qaida, including some who had traveled from as far away as Afghanistan, had a free hand in Sinai.

They included about 4,000 fighters who would form the core of Sinai Province, which was called Ansar Beyt al-Maqdis before declaring its support for Islamic State last year, said the officials.

The crackdown on Islamists by Sisi - now president - led to many militants being killed, jailed or fleeing for countries like Syria and Libya.

Sinai Province now consists of only hundreds of militants scattered into groups of 5-7 men, which have few links to reduce the chances of capture, said the officials.

"They are very secretive," one of the intelligence officials said. "Each cell doesn't know about other cells."

Another said: "It's a small number of militants but it takes just one person to carry out a suicide bombing."

Last year, security officials said Masri and a few other leaders had been killed.

He later appeared in a video purported to prove he is alive and reaffirmed his loyalty to Baghdadi. Masri could be seen kneeling beside weapons he said were seized from 30 Egyptian soldiers killed in an attack.

A military armored personnel carrier burned in the background.

A tribal leader in the Sinai told Reuters he had recently noticed pro-Islamic State militants driving around in new Toyota Land Cruisers. Some had Apple computers.

"It seems they are getting more and more ambitious," he said.

[Oswald2001]

Hey moo slums, how's that whole DEATH Cult thing workin' out for ya?




ProTip: Try something else you f*ckwits.

[Xfactor]

I would like to see evidence a bomb took down that jet.

[Oswald2001]

Originally Posted by Xfactor ↗

I would like to see evidence a bomb took down that jet.

With a bomb, there is always evidence.

Blast damage, shrapnel, residue, etc.

I am guessing that political considerations have slowed down the release of information.


Egypt stands to lose BILLION$ annually in tourist revenue which ISIS and associated moo slums know very well.

[Xfactor]

This right Oswald. There is no evidence. They check and claimed no bomb was used. They can check with chemicals. Even ash. Russia shot that aircraft down with a missile they have. The one that doesn't explode but is more of a shotgun.

[BryanXavier]

I'm still leaning toward mechanical/electrical/fuel breakdown.

Cons for Russia doing it:

It's fucking evil.
Not necessary to want Russian folks to hate ISIS - It's a fugging dictatorship. Putin is loved and couldn't care less about public opinion on the matter.

Cons for USA: NOt pulling the right empathy chords to get the US to join in.

Cons ISIS missile: Too high

Cons ISIS bomb: Had to get past security (although admittedly this is my second choice and second most likely to me)

So that leaves the higher likelihood of a malfunction. Though it's hard for me to say that confidently.