[WonderMomma]

Originally Posted by RedactedKaos ↗

Anyone else hearing murmuring of F16s downing 3 su-57s/34s

I haven't been able to entrench myself in the latest the last week or so but I will make it a point to do a little research on this tonight and tomorrow.

[WonderMomma]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

I haven't been able to entrench myself in the latest the last week or so but I will make it a point to do a little research on this tonight and tomorrow.

Sorry, I haven't had a chance to look into this yet. I imagine if F-16s are being used, we will definitely hear about it. But I'll keep an eye out for anything.

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NO MEDIA:

The Times. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/r...2024-2fv5ddgk9)

ℹ️ As the war drags on, there is nervousness in Europe that if Trump wins the US election, US support for Ukraine will end. The unpredictability of the incoming US administration means that European countries are scrambling to prepare for any outcome.

ℹ️ British Defense Minister Grant Shapps said that he constantly talks with his European colleagues about the need to support Ukraine in its "darkest hour".

We must unite to help them in a war that will define the fate of Europe for decades - both technologically and with support and moral leadership

ℹ️ Some Western officials believe that Ukraine can continue to deter the Russians without American support.

It is much easier to support Ukraine when it is on the defensive than to go on the offensive. I'm confident, at least as far as that (defense) is concerned, I think we're pretty confident in the long run

ℹ️ According to the estimates of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain, by 2025, Russia will lose more than half a million killed and wounded, if the losses continue at the same pace as now.

ℹ️ According to the latest military intelligence data, the average daily number of wounded or dead Russians increased by almost 300 people during 2023 compared to last year. In addition to committing huge numbers of soldiers to combat operations, almost 40 percent of all Russian government spending is spent on defense - more than on health care and education combined.

ℹ️ On the other hand, many Ukrainians are tired of the war. One Ukrainian source acknowledged that average Ukrainians are talking about a truce, but there are questions about what the cost of that truce will be.

ℹ️ In December, the EU failed to agree on a critical €50 billion bailout package for Ukraine after Viktor Orban vetoed the proposal. In the US, Republicans have blocked President Biden's plans to give Ukraine another $60 billion, using it to push for new immigration legislation.

ℹ️ A military source said that Ukrainians "feel abandoned, looking at the political disputes in the EU and the USA."

Fortunately, Great Britain is the only one who is firmly on your side

ℹ️ Britain's stockpile of weapons has dwindled so much that Britain has "nothing left" and it is better for them to lobby the interests of the Germans. At the same time, they noted that Great Britain plays a decisive role in persuading other countries to provide weapons to Ukraine and acts as a third party in facilitating these supplies.


=====

NO MEDIA:

Zelensky's important interview (https://www.economist.com/europe/202...odymr-zelensky) for the Economist.

ℹ️ Zelensky is angry, but not because of the successes of his opponent and not even because of the lack of progress on the battlefield in his own army. He is exasperated by the vacillation of some of his allies, as well as the aloofness of some of his countrymen.

ℹ️ An endless war, a year under negative headlines and a promising but unsuccessful counteroffensive - Zelensky has lost the lightness and humor that were characteristic of previous meetings with journalists. Sitting in his office and talking via Zoom, he delivers his message as if trying to break through a computer screen.

ℹ️ The West has lost its sense of urgency, and many Ukrainians have lost their sense of existential threat, he says. Now he is trying to awaken both.

We may not have been as successful [in 2023] as the world wanted us to be. Maybe not everything is as fast as someone imagined... But the thought that Putin is winning is nothing more than a "feeling".

ℹ️ Zelensky emphasizes that in 2023, Putin's army was unable to take a single major city, while Ukraine managed to break through the Russian blockade of the Black Sea and is now transporting millions of tons of grain via a new route.

This is a HUGE result!

ℹ️ The main argument is that by supporting Ukraine, Europe protects itself from Russian aggression.

By giving us money or giving us weapons, you support yourself. You are saving your children, not ours. If Russia is allowed to take Ukrainian children, they will take other children as well. If Russia violates the rights of Ukrainians, it will violate the rights of the whole world. If Ukraine loses, Putin will bring his army closer to the borders of the West.

Maybe something is missing. Or maybe someone is missing. Someone who could talk about Ukraine as protecting all of us. The intelligence services of several European countries began to [study] the possibility of an attack on their territory by Russia... Even those countries that were not part of the USSR

ℹ️ As for proposals for peace talks, Zelensky does not see "any fundamental steps towards peace on the part of Russia." Instead, he and the Ukrainians are watching a flurry of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in the east, south, north and west. And if Russia signals a desire to freeze the conflict.

This is not because they are righteous, but because they do not have enough missiles, ammunition and trained troops. They need this break. They will recover and then turn the page of this war.

ℹ️ Zelensky has been tight-lipped about what Ukraine might achieve in 2024, arguing that leaks ahead of last summer's counteroffensive helped Russia prepare. But if he is saying anything, it is that the Crimea and the battle in the Black Sea will become the focus of the war. The isolation of Crimea and the weakening of Russian military potential there are "extremely important, because it is a way to reduce the number of attacks from this region."

ℹ️ A successful operation will be "an example for the whole world." It will also have a big effect inside Russia. The loss of the central object of Kremlin propaganda would show that "thousands of Russian officers died only because of Putin's ambitions."

ℹ️ According to him, the speed of success will depend on the military assistance he will receive from Western partners. He asked for the German Taurus missile. This could allow Ukraine to destroy the $4 billion Crimean Bridge, effectively isolating Crimea from Russia.

ℹ️ Zelensky is less forthcoming about his targets in the east and south. The declared strategic goal - to return Ukraine to its borders - has not changed and will not change, but he no longer sets time limits and does not promise how much territory Ukraine will be able to "deoccupy" next year. His immediate task in the land war will be "the defense of the east, the rescue of these very important cities of Ukraine, the east and the south, Kharkov, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv," and the protection of the country's critical infrastructure.

ℹ️ The inflated expectations that Zelensky created on the eve of the 2023 counteroffensive partly led to disappointment.

We must consider our own strengths

ℹ️ According to him, there is no mobilization of Ukrainian society and the whole world today as at the beginning of the conflict. And this needs to be changed.

Mobilization is not only a matter of soldiers going to the front. It's about all of us. This is the mobilization of all forces. This is the only way to protect our state and de-occupy our land. Let's be honest, we switched to domestic politics. This is a choice that should be made by Ukrainians. If we continue to focus on domestic politics, we will need to call elections. Change the laws, the constitution. But forget about counteroffensive actions and deoccupation

ℹ️ After almost two years of full-scale war, Zelensky has lost his youthful exuberance. But he is still convinced that Ukraine cannot back down from its plan to defeat Russia.

The most important profession that a Ukrainian can do at the moment is to stay in Ukraine. For our Western partners, it means being with Ukraine

=====

"Report on the construction of additional lines of fortifications in the Kharkiv region."

The video doesn't specify but I wonder if any of those dragon's teeth are Russian made and recycled?

#uamapupdate

[WonderMomma]

This might fall into sabotage but more in line with OPSEC so putting it here.

This stood out to me because I used to run a stream of live cams in Ukraine. Dealt with a few Ukrainians who had to shut down their cameras due to authorities enforcing opsec beginning in March 2022. Honestly surprised I don't see more stories like this. There are a shit ton of public/private CCTV cams that are ripe for hackers. I never hacked any cameras for our stream but I knew a few other streamers who did.

"The SBU blocked the webcams that “illuminated” the work of air defense during the Russian missile attack on Kyiv on January 2

The security service on "hot tracks" established the addresses and dismantled the webcams broadcasting the work of air defense and the locations of Kyiv's critical infrastructure during the air attack of the Russian Federation on January 2.

It is about two robotic online surveillance cameras that were hacked by Russian intelligence services to spy on the Defense Forces in the capital.

According to SBU cyber specialists, one of the devices was located on the balcony of an apartment building and was used by a local condominium to monitor the surrounding area.

However, as a result of hacking, the aggressor gained remote access to control this webcam. Having penetrated her settings, the special services of the Russian Federation changed the viewing angle and connected her to the YouTube streaming platform.

In this way, the occupiers covertly recorded all visual information in the range of the camera.

Another external surveillance device is blocked in one of the residential complexes of Kyiv. Residents used it to monitor the parking lot.

Cyber specialists of the SBU established that this webcam was remotely controlled by the enemy for covert recording of the surrounding territory, including critical infrastructure facilities.

According to available information, with the help of these cameras, the aggressor collected data for preparing and adjusting strikes on Kyiv.

According to all the facts, comprehensive measures are underway to neutralize the enemy's new attempts to conduct reconnaissance and subversive activities through online cameras.

In general, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, SBU cyber specialists have blocked the operation of about 10,000 IR cameras, which the enemy could use to adjust missile attacks on Ukraine.

The SBU calls on owners of street webcams to stop online broadcasts from their devices, and citizens to report detected streams from such cameras to the official SBU chatbot: t.me/stop_russian_war_bot (http://t.me/stop_russian_war_bot) ."

[WonderMomma]

"Summary of the situation at the front for the last 3 weeks from War Mapper analysts

ℹ️ Map 1: Russians continue their attacks on the flanks of Avdiivka. There were local successes north of Stepovoy (north face) and in the area of Pervomaiskyi (south face)

ℹ️ Map 2: the enemy advanced in several places to the west of Bakhmut, capturing positions that Ukraine had won earlier. Also, the Ukrain was attacked. district at a height of north-west Ticks

ℹ️ Map 3: the enemy launched a local offensive in the Kremin Forest, endangering some advanced Ukrainian positions (expanded gray area).

ℹ️ Map 4: the Russians advanced along the railway line between the settlements of Vesele and Berestov (Northern direction)

ℹ️ Map 5: during the last weeks, the enemy carried out massive shelling of the town of Sinkivka. The defense forces managed to prevent enemy infantry from entrenching in the settlement.

ℹ️ Map 6: Russians captured the rest of Maryinka on the northern bank of the reservoir. The entire (administrative) settlement is now under their control.

ℹ️ Map 7: South of Maryinka, the enemy launched a series of attacks on Novomykhailivka in recent months, pushing Ukrainian defenders to the outskirts of the settlement.

ℹ️ Map 8: Russians have captured some positions southeast of Robotyny (Tokmacki direction) that Ukraine won back during the counteroffensive last year."

#uamapupdate

[WonderMomma]

NO MEDIA:

"Jan Kallberg (https://twitter.com/Cyberdefensecom/...77516398965099) , Ph.D., former professor at the US Military Academy at West Point

Each downing of the Russian "hypersonic" Kh-47M2 "Kynzhal" missile by Ukraine with Patriot air defense missiles improves the interception algorithm and increases the accuracy of all Patriot systems. This will be useful for the US, other NATO countries and other operators of the Patriot air defense system.

The same applies to any downed Russian plane. The quality of the data is high because it is tested in real conditions. This is not office work or theoretical calculations; this is data from a successful interception. The value of this data is really high because it can increase the success rate in the long run from, say, 85% to 99% for a certain type of goal.

If Russia launches 20 low-power tactical nuclear bombs from the 47M2 "Kinzhal" at NATO targets during the war, then with improved data, most likely, not a single missile will reach the target. If the data had not been improved - 3 missiles would have passed through the anti-aircraft defense and hit the targets.

Thus, the provision of Patriot missiles to Ukraine is a defense investment and provides high profitability, as the improved algorithm modernizes existing systems.

"

=====

"The story of the Wall Street Journal about the recently opened specialized School for combating drones by the US military.

The Americans are closely watching our experience and this is also repeatedly mentioned in the plot."

[WonderMomma]

"Ours is at home. More than 200 of our soldiers and civilians were returned from Russian captivity. Soldiers, sergeants, officers. Soldiers of the Armed Forces, National Guard, Navy, border guards. Part of the defenders defended Mariupol and Azovstal.

Thank you to everyone who, despite all the difficulties, brings our people home! Thanks to our defenders! We will do everything to return all our people who are currently in Russian captivity."

#uapow

[WonderMomma]

"Kontakt6 (https://twitter.com/Kontakt642/statu...711329/photo/1) (specializes in the research of tanks of different countries) made a comparison of the thermal imaging systems of the T-90M gunner and the Abrams M1A1SA (this version was given to us by the Americans).

ℹ️ T-90M:

"Sosna-U" (Sensor: Catherine-FC)
✅ Zoom factor: 4x, 12x (optical);
✅ Target identification range: ~4500 m
✅ Resolution: 768x574 (4:3)

ℹ️ M1A1SA:

"GPS-LOS" (Thermal imager: SADA 2)
✅ Zoom factor: 3x, 6x, 13x (optical); 25x, 50x (digital)
✅ Target identification range: ~6000-8000 m
✅ Resolution: 1316x480 (16:9)

Conclusion:

The M1A1SA has a clear advantage over the T-90M when it comes to imaging capabilities. Despite the fact that both machines are equipped with 2nd generation thermal imagers, GPS-LOS has almost twice the resolution and range.

ℹ️ The generation is conditional, as the criteria differ from country to country."

[WonderMomma]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

"Ours is at home. More than 200 of our soldiers and civilians were returned from Russian captivity. Soldiers, sergeants, officers. Soldiers of the Armed Forces, National Guard, Navy, border guards. Part of the defenders defended Mariupol and Azovstal.

Thank you to everyone who, despite all the difficulties, brings our people home! Thanks to our defenders! We will do everything to return all our people who are currently in Russian captivity."

#uapow

More info/photos from the above video:
"Ukraine managed to return 230 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians from captivity.

For the first time since August 7, a prisoner exchange took place, the largest in the history of the full-scale war."

Video: This must be the group of RU POWs that were exchanged for the UA POWs from the above. I always see a marked difference in their condition. UA always looks emaciated and sickly... these RU pows look fairly healthy. I hope my saying that doesn't get anyone's panties in a twist... just an obvious observation.

Russian source: "Our guys have returned from captivity."

#uapow #rupow

[WonderMomma]

Loaf 3.0

[RedactedKaos]

Danish Officer Andres Puck on F16s