[WonderMomma]

1. Prophetic 2014 video from the late Sen. John McCain regarding Putin. (article I found with a quick search: https://americanmilitarynews.com/202...edicts-future/)

2. Comparison of Zelenskyy from last NYE to this year's NYE speeches.

[WonderMomma]

UA soldier gets emotional listening to Zelenskyy's NYE speech.

[WonderMomma]

Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with ABC News that the strikes on the territory of Russia will be deeper each time. He refused to confirm Ukraine's involvement in the attacks on Russian air bases. When asked about the strikes on Crimea, he replied: "Crimea is the territory of Ukraine, so we can use any weapon there".

[WonderMomma]

1. Girkin-Strelkov says Russia is lying to themselves that Ukraine is exhausted from fighting to try and calm down its population and leaders.

2. Girkin-Strelkov attacks Kadyrov and his forces, saying their contribution to Russian victories was exaggerated.

[Rfneimad]

[WonderMomma]

An excerpt from ISW daily report today.

Russia’s air and missile campaign against Ukraine is likely not generating the Kremlin’s desired information effects among Russia’s nationalists. Russian forces conducted a cruise missile strike against an object in Khmelnytskyi Oblast — reportedly a base of the Ukrainian 8th Separate Special Forces Regiment — on December 31.[6] A Russian milblogger stated that the strike, while well-executed and a good information operation, is too little too late.[7] The blogger argued that Russia needed to systematically conduct such strikes earlier on in the war, that the strike should have had follow-up strikes to ensure maximum damage, and that the timing of this strike was inopportune since Ukrainian elements were unlikely to be at the base on New Year’s Eve.[8] The blogger noted that this was not the first time that Russian forces failed to deliver effective strikes due to an absence of secondary strikes and that Russia should generally be more thorough in its destruction.[9]

A devastating Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on December 31 generated significant criticism of Russian military leadership in the Russian information space. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that a Ukrainian precision strike on a Russian manpower and military equipment concentration point in Makiivka destroyed up to 10 pieces of equipment but did not release an official casualty number as of January 2.[10] The Department of Strategic Communications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated on January 1 that the strike killed 400 mobilized personnel and injured 300.[11] Geolocated footage published on January 1 also placed the aftermath of the strike at the Vocational School No. 19, fewer than 13km east of the frontline.[12] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) acknowledged the strike, claiming that four of the six rockets killed 63 Russian servicemen.[13] Samara Oblast Governor Dmitry Azarov confirmed that among the deceased servicemen are residents of the oblast, and some Russian sources claimed that 600 servicemen of a mobilization regiment were in the school building at the time of the strike.[14] Some milbloggers claimed that the death count was about 110, with over 100 wounded personnel.[15]

The Russian MoD is likely attempting to deflect the blame for its poor operational security (OPSEC) onto Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) officials and mobilized forces. DNR law enforcement officials told Russian state wires that the strike occurred when Russian servicemen violated operational security by using personal cell phones, allowing Ukrainian forces to conduct a precision strike at the base.[16] Kremlin-leaning outlets and some milbloggers amplified the claim, stating that Russian forces should not underestimate the Ukrainian ability to exploit poor OPSEC practices on the frontlines and called on the Kremlin to introduce stricter guidelines on cell phone use among servicemen.[17] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Deputy Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselyov amplified milblogger reports that military commanders are demanding the resignation of DNR Head Denis Pushilin.[18] Some DNR public officials have also called for the punishment of the official who had decided to use the school.[19] The Russian MoD may have deliberately relied on the DNR officials to blame OPSEC violations on mobilized servicemen for the attack in an effort to make the DNR the responsible party.

The Russian MoD’s vague acknowledgment of the strike generated criticism towards the Russian military command, however. Wagner-affiliated milbloggers stated that Russian military command had made it easy for the Ukrainian forces to strike several hundred servicemen in one location, calling the DNR explanation of cell phone usage a “lie.”[20] A former Russian officer had also stated that Russian forces stored ammunition in the school’s basement, enabling the devastating strike.[21] Other milbloggers stated that the Russian command witnessed similar strikes throughout the past 11 months but were “criminally negligent” and failed to disperse the Russian forces quartered in Makiivka into smaller groups further in the rear.[22] Several milbloggers referred to a Putin statement about the necessity for the Ministry of Defense (MoD) to take accountability and listen to criticism on December 21 while calling on the Kremlin to punish the commander responsible for the OPSEC failures.[23] Wagner financier and avid critic of the Russian military command, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, offered an uncharacteristic and vague comment about the situation — stating that he could not reveal how Wagner prevents similar OPSEC problems.[24] ISW previously reported on two other instances of mass milblogger criticism: the failed Russian river crossing in Bilohorivka in May 2022 and the botched Russian offensive operation on Pavlivka in October 2022.[25]

Such profound military failures will continue to complicate Putin’s efforts to appease the Russian pro-war community and retain the dominant narrative in the domestic information space. Russian sources claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the military and the Investigative Committee to investigate the incident in Makiivka by January 6.[26] Putin’s inability to address the criticism and fix the flaws in Russia’s military campaign may undermine his credibility as a hands-on war leader.

(Read the full report here: https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...january-2-2023)

[WonderMomma]

Some interesting tid bits being reported today:

15:30 ET: The situation in the Soledar — Bakhmut — Mayorsk section remains the most difficult at the front. Heavy fighting also continues at the Svatove-Kreminna border and in the direction of Lysychansk. This was announced by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny


16:12 ET: Ukraine has created its own low-cost, simplified analogue of the electronic military control system that the US spent decades and billions of dollars on. It is about the Delta virtual network, which, through satellites and special software, coordinates intelligence data, the work of fighters, drones and weapons.

This adds intelligence, coordination and precision to the actions of the Ukrainian army to successfully maneuver around the numerous but clumsy Russian forces, The Wall Street Journal reports

18:00 ET: The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation admitted that 89 Russian servicemen were killed [Ukraine claims +400] as a result of the attack of the Armed Forces on the occupied Makiivka. They say that among the dead is the deputy commander of the regiment, Lieutenant Colonel Bachurin.

The main reason for the attack is the "massive use of mobile phones by the personnel in violation of the ban on mobile phones", which made it possible to determine the location of the occupiers' location. The ministry promises to conduct an investigation and bring the culprits to justice.

20:12 ET: Zelensky is convinced that Russia will use all its forces to try to turn the tide of the war, but Ukraine is preparing to disrupt this scenario. “Any attempt at their new offensive must fail. This will be the final defeat of the terrorist state," the president said.

PHOTO ONE: Record warmth is currently entrenched across Europe (+10-20C above average [50-68 F]), with the pattern looking like it's going to hold through the next week. It also looks like we won't see a hard freeze in eastern Ukraine anytime in the near future, hampering any movement in the region.

PHOTO TWO: Current European gas prices headed to a year low

[WonderMomma]

Dmitry Medvedev the former president of Russia and an avid supporter of Putin just tweeted his prediction for the coming year.

This will help you all understand the world view of the Russian leadership.

[WonderMomma]

Czech 152mm self-propelled guns DANA M2 are going to Ukraine.

In total, Ukraine should receive 26 such self-propelled guns. The range of fire with a special projectile DN1CZ is 25.5 km, and with a regular shot - up to 18.2 km.

According to the Oryx information portal, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet lost a single DANA M2 self-propelled guns.

[WonderMomma]

In the Russian-occupied Mariupol, Donetsk region, the port is being re-equipped into a military base, and in the spring it may be possible to arrange the supply of military equipment by sea.

"Occupants are gradually turning the seaport into a military base. In late December, all Mariupol residents (except for some collaborators) were dismissed from the port and workers from Muscovy were brought in. Work has begun to divide the berths into conditionally civilian and conditionally military ones. Due to the siltation of the channel, vessels with small equipment, such as river-sea class RM3, can still enter the port water area. However, this is not an obstacle to establishing the supply of military equipment in the spring navigation period".

This was reported by the adviser of the legally elected mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko in Telegram