[WonderMomma]

Source: https://snyder.substack.com/p/why-th...ainian-victory

15 Reasons Why the World Needs Ukrainian Victory

Why does the world need a Ukrainian victory?

1. To halt atrocity. Russia's occupation is genocidal. Wherever the Ukrainians recover territory, they save lives, and re-establish the principle that people have a right not to be tortured, deported, and murdered.

2. To preserve the international legal order. Its basis is that one country may not invade another and annex its territory, as Russia seeks to do. Russia's war of aggression is obviously illegal, but the legal order does not defend itself.

3. To end an era of empire. This could be the last war fought on the colonial logic that another state and people do not exist. But this turning point is reached only if Russia loses.

4. To defend the peace project of the European Union. Russia's war is not directed only against Ukraine, but against the larger idea that European states can peacefully cooperate. If empire prevails, integration fails.

5. To give the rule of law a chance in Russia. So long as Russia fights imperial wars, it is trapped in repressive domestic politics. Coming generations of Russians could live better and freer lives, but only if Russia loses this war.

6. To weaken the prestige of tyrants. In this century, the trend has been towards authoritarianism, with Putinism as a force and a model. Its defeat by a democracy reverses that trend. Fascism is about force, and is discredited by defeat.

7. To remind us that democracy is the better system. Ukrainians have internalized the idea that they choose their own leaders. In taking risks to protect their democracy, they remind us that we all must act to protect ours.

8. To lift the threat of major war in Europe. For decades, a confrontation with the USSR and then Russia was the scenario for regional war. A Ukrainian victory removes this scenario by making another Russian offensive implausible.

9. [SIC] To life the threat of major war in Asia. In recent years, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has been the leading scenario for a global war. A Ukrainian victory teaches Beijing that such an offensive operation is costly and likely to fail.

10. To prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons. Russia, a nuclear power, then invaded. If Ukraine loses, countries that can build nuclear weapons will feel that they need to do so to protect themselves.

11. To reduce the risk of nuclear war. A Ukrainian victory makes two major war scenarios involving nuclear powers less likely, and works against nuclear proliferation generally. Nothing would reduce the risk of nuclear war more than Ukrainian victory.

12. To head off future resource wars. Aside from being a consistent perpetrator of war crimes, Russia's Wagner group seizes mineral resources by violence wherever it can. This is why it is fighting in Bakhmut.

13. To guarantee food supplies and prevent future starvation. Ukraine feeds much of the world. Russia threatens to use that food as a weapon. As one Russian propagandist put it, "starvation is our only hope."

14. To accelerate the shift from fossil fuels. Putin shows the threat that hydrocarbon oligarchy poses to the future. His weaponization of energy supplies has accelerated the turn towards renewables. This will continue, if Russia loses.

15. To affirm the value of freedom. Even as they have every reason to define freedom as against something -- Russian occupation --, Ukrainians remind us that freedom is actually for something, the right to be the people they wish to be, in a future they can help shape.

I am a historian of political atrocity, and for me personally number 1 -- defeating an ongoing genocidal project -- would be more than enough reason to want Ukrainian victory. But every single one of the other fourteen is hugely significant. Each presents the kind of opportunity that generations of policy planners wish for, but almost never get. Much has been done, we have not yet seen and seized the moment.

This is a once-in-lifetime conjuncture, not to be wasted. The Ukrainians have given us a chance to turn this century around, a chance for freedom and security that we could not have achieved by our own efforts, no matter who we happen to be. All we have to do is help them win.

23 January 2023

[WonderMomma]

Norway to discuss possible transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine - Daglabet.

The closed-door meeting, which will take place on Monday evening, will be attended by 20 politicians from the Norwegian parliament

(due to the overwhelming amount of "thinking about sending UA leopard tanks" from various places, and the situation w/Scholz, I'm not going to post anything more about them unless they're actually sent)

[WonderMomma]

Germany is free now... ( Faust, would be interested in hearing your take on this since you live there. Is this accurate, to your knowledge?)

[WonderMomma]

I recently found a channel on Telegram that is dedicated to nothing but the destroyed equipment from the war. In case anyone is interested, they have about 26,000 pieces of media. https://t.me/lost_warinua

[WonderMomma]

Source: https://tekdeeps.com/estonia-plans-t...-russia-unian/ (they sourced: https://www.unian.ua/world/estoniya-...-12119355.html) (I had zero time to look into either of these sources, FYI)

Estonia plans to close the Gulf of Finland to Russia – UNIAN

January 23, 2023
Estonia wants to inspect Russian warships and civilian vessels.

The government of Estonia is going to introduce a coastal “adjacent zone” in the Gulf of Finland, which will allow to block Russian shipping on it.

This makes it possible to check compliance with Estonian law within 24 nautical miles from the starting line of the Estonian territorial sea, stated Head of the Estonian Foreign Ministry, Urmas Reinsalu.

“The contiguous zone is a maritime zone adjacent to the territorial sea, which can be established by domestic law, and where the coastal state has the right to exercise control, as well as to punish for various violations of its legal acts,” explained Oleksandr Lott, a lecturer at the Faculty of Law of the University of Tartu.

According to him, the right of the state in the “adjacent zone” extends to customs and tax issues, as well as sanitary and immigration rules.

Officially, Estonia denies that it is going to introduce a “contiguous zone” to more effectively apply sanctions against Russia. But, according to Lott, this is one of the ulterior motives. At the same time, Estonia will be able to pursue violators beyond the borders of the territorial sea. In fact, this will allow Estonia to inspect Russian warships and civilian vessels that leave the ports of the Leningrad Region and Kronstadt. In case of refusal, a ban on passage through the bay will be possible.

Estonia’s position on the war
Since the full-scale invasion of Russia, Tallinn has supported Kyiv in every possible way. According to the ratio of military aid to GDP, Estonia became the leader. Armament supplies from the Baltic states to our country exceeded 1% of GDP.

On January 19, Estonia announced a record package of military aid for the Armed Forces. It includes dozens of 155 mm and 122 mm howitzers, thousands of artillery shells and more than a hundred Carl-Gustav anti-tank guns.

And a month ago, Estonia handed over personal protective equipment for Ukrainian soldiers.

Tallinn is also in favor of lowering the ceiling price for Russian oil. This will help increase sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation.

[WonderMomma]

23 January 2023 | Poland

German infantry fighting vehicles "Marder" and tanks "Leopard".

[WonderMomma]

Trench life is a bitch...

[WonderMomma]

Turkish manufacturer Bayraktar has launched the Kizılelma unmanned jet fighter. It made its first full flight.

Kizılelma is positioned as a deck-mounted supersonic UAV with an AI-25TLT turbojet engine from the Ukrainian company Motor Sich. It is currently known that it can carry 1,500 kg of payload (weapons, devices, etc.). Its declared maximum speed is 900 km/h. The range is 930 km and the operating altitude is 10,668 meters. It can stay in the air for five hours.

[WonderMomma]

Cover of the Polish magazine Wprost

"Berlin is stubbornly burying its head in the sand when it comes to helping defeat Russia. Moscow poses a threat to NATO's unity and Europe's security," writes columnist Jakub Melnyk.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki also spoke out on this issue.

"If there is no German agreement on the Leopard 2 tanks, a smaller coalition of countries will be created that is ready to donate some of their modern tanks to the warring Ukraine." "We will not passively watch as Ukraine is bleeding to death. Ukraine and Europe will win this war - with or without Germany," Morawiecki emphasized.

[SDI]

Originally Posted by WonderMomma ↗

Source:

15 Reasons Why the World Needs Ukrainian Victory

In these kind of asymetric wars its often sufficient if the underdog nation doesn't lose and just carries on. Just check back with Vietnam or Afghanistan. As long as they get support from foreign powers, the underdog will continue to wear down the invading force, until the campaign has to be stopped for various reasons. UKR should just continue to slowly trade land for mobik's. Going for a full battlefield victory might be a risk, if menpower and war supply pools are that much unbalanced.

https://odessa-journal.com/the-wagne...rs-in-ukraine/

Over night these kind of articles popped up on several media.... Is it realistc? Are that many gone?