[CITADELLE]

October 31st, 2023
GAZA-ISRAEL, WILL THE WAR ESCALATE?
As the ground invasion of Gaza has begun, this is now the big question.
Will other actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran, Turkey, US, Russia and others get involved?
Hezbollah
Hezbollah seems adamant to take decisive actions, more sporadic actions have been seen rather than a full scale attack. They know that this would trigger as swift and deadly response to their forces, supposedly to be in the 50.000 well-armed and trained combatants. Political pressure in Lebanon and an economic crisis seem to be deterring actions, but on the other hand they cannot lose face as Hamas gets wiped out.
Iran/Egypt
Iran has tried to wage an oil embargo against Israel but it has not been successful. For now, they have been making several announcements for a cease fire war, but no decisive action. The only real threat would be the blockade of the Ormuz Trait, where 30% of the world´s oil flows, and of course economic support to Hamas and Hezbollah.
Egypt also can close the Suez Canal as an additional form of economic pressure.
Oil prices have gone down, but this is because Venezuela ramped up its production (at US request) and also more supply from Russia and specially Iran has been seen.
US
The US has deployed two carrier groups to the region, and supplied Israel with enormous quantities of military supplies, but it does not seem to grasp how enraged the Arab World as a whole is becoming with the attacks on Gaza and the civilian casualties that are been caused.
Biden and its advisors seem to be living in the 1950’s era or in the Twilight Zone (popular Tv show from the 70s). It is a whole ballgame now.
Arab countries before the war were pretty distant apart, looking for their best interests but the casualties caused in this war have united them, one of Hamas goals with the attack in October 7th.
Also, the question remains on how high is the US disposition to become directly involved in the war. It has announced that it will commit troops on the ground, but once they do that they become targets and potential casualties.
US public opinion, whilst supporting the economic aid up to a point, will probably not support direct military involvement. There are many more pressuring issues in the US as it is now, and the previous war in Iraq/Afghanistan is pretty fresh in many minds. Also the expense in foreign aid is becoming an issue, having been recently approved $us. 60 billion for Military Aid for Ukraine, and $us. 40 billion for Israel. US Treasury and other bonds here we come to finance the expense.
But as it has been noted by many, the lobby that military industries perform in Congress is extremely effective and war of course is good business for them.
Israel
It is evident that the air strikes and other related attacks in Gaza are surgical, or precision guided attacks, will cause civilian losses or collateral damage. It would not be military wise to level urban areas, because this just makes the defense for Hamas more easy (tanks and other vehicles can no longer maneuver) and it becomes ideal for snipers and booby traps.
We have the battle of Stalingrad/Russia in WW2 as a classic remainder. The German Air Force (Luftwaffe) leveled Stalingrad and the 6th Army, one of the best equipped in the German Army was entangled in the city’s ruins, encircled and destroyed.
The question is that militarily it is impossible to destroy Hamas and free the hostages, that are around 230. It is either one or the other. This could be one of the causes that Israel is not using full scale operations, but special tactical ones.
Whilst the attack on Gaza is condemned by many around the world, it comes to mind that any country that holds civilian hostages, including women and children, is not following international laws for war. But, interestingly, Hamas just gives the perfect excuse for Israel attacks and evidently does not care much for civilian Palestinian casualties. The PR war has been lost already.
It is evident that Hamas and its some 450 kms. of tunnels in Gaza are a big threat, to Israel, but some type of treaty can be agreed in order to disarm them and destroy the tunnels, but of course they won’t agree for that.
Russia/China/Turkey
They support a cease fire because simply it is in their best interest. Russia is battling in Ukraine and China worries about disruptions in the oil supply and other imports that their economy need. So they will keep pressuring for a cease-fire and wait and see if others get involved (Iran, Turkey for example)
Europe
There is a lot of division amongst supporters of Israel and, like Russia and China it is in their best interest to have a cease fire.


Conclusion
The best for all would be a cease-fire. An escalation, would be extremely negative for the region. Seems like a no-win contest. The only ones to gain are the military industry.
There are already more than 8.000 Palestinian civilians killed, and over 1.400 Israelis killed, but Israel wants to follow thorough and seems that no one can stop them.
The US either won’t or can’t do much, not clear why to most observers. Lack of international experience and knowledge of the new reality in the Middle East could be one.
As some say maybe Israel needs to be saved from itself.

Jose Barroso *(josebarroso@mail.com) is an Economist and Analyst

[Nofx99]

So, Australia have sent troops somewhere to the region.
US have aircraft carriers in the region and China have some 6 warships in the region. Iran is sending drones and hezbollah are increasing numbers at the borders.
All of this may come to nothing for now, but the root cause of the issue remains and the wider debate and understanding that Islam is the problem will create a whole new thing. France will have more terror attacks for instance. If it's let to settle without a group called 'Hamas' it will be another name for a group of people who support the destruction of Israel.
Unless you can convince muslims that Israel should exist we're going to have a problem and people are starting to see Islam is the problem.
Pakistan has nukes I haven't even looked into them. Iran won't have much yet, but could have anything really.
Found it interesting how you put.iran and someone else in the same heading
QUOTE=CITADELLE;8101591]October 31st, 2023
GAZA-ISRAEL, WILL THE WAR ESCALATE?
As the ground invasion of Gaza has begun, this is now the big question.
Will other actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran, Turkey, US, Russia and others get involved?
Hezbollah
Hezbollah seems adamant to take decisive actions, more sporadic actions have been seen rather than a full scale attack. They know that this would trigger as swift and deadly response to their forces, supposedly to be in the 50.000 well-armed and trained combatants. Political pressure in Lebanon and an economic crisis seem to be deterring actions, but on the other hand they cannot lose face as Hamas gets wiped out.
Iran/Egypt
Iran has tried to wage an oil embargo against Israel but it has not been successful. For now, they have been making several announcements for a cease fire war, but no decisive action. The only real threat would be the blockade of the Ormuz Trait, where 30% of the world´s oil flows, and of course economic support to Hamas and Hezbollah.
Egypt also can close the Suez Canal as an additional form of economic pressure.
Oil prices have gone down, but this is because Venezuela ramped up its production (at US request) and also more supply from Russia and specially Iran has been seen.
US
The US has deployed two carrier groups to the region, and supplied Israel with enormous quantities of military supplies, but it does not seem to grasp how enraged the Arab World as a whole is becoming with the attacks on Gaza and the civilian casualties that are been caused.
Biden and its advisors seem to be living in the 1950’s era or in the Twilight Zone (popular Tv show from the 70s). It is a whole ballgame now.
Arab countries before the war were pretty distant apart, looking for their best interests but the casualties caused in this war have united them, one of Hamas goals with the attack in October 7th.
Also, the question remains on how high is the US disposition to become directly involved in the war. It has announced that it will commit troops on the ground, but once they do that they become targets and potential casualties.
US public opinion, whilst supporting the economic aid up to a point, will probably not support direct military involvement. There are many more pressuring issues in the US as it is now, and the previous war in Iraq/Afghanistan is pretty fresh in many minds. Also the expense in foreign aid is becoming an issue, having been recently approved $us. 60 billion for Military Aid for Ukraine, and $us. 40 billion for Israel. US Treasury and other bonds here we come to finance the expense.
But as it has been noted by many, the lobby that military industries perform in Congress is extremely effective and war of course is good business for them.
Israel
It is evident that the air strikes and other related attacks in Gaza are surgical, or precision guided attacks, will cause civilian losses or collateral damage. It would not be military wise to level urban areas, because this just makes the defense for Hamas more easy (tanks and other vehicles can no longer maneuver) and it becomes ideal for snipers and booby traps.
We have the battle of Stalingrad/Russia in WW2 as a classic remainder. The German Air Force (Luftwaffe) leveled Stalingrad and the 6th Army, one of the best equipped in the German Army was entangled in the city’s ruins, encircled and destroyed.
The question is that militarily it is impossible to destroy Hamas and free the hostages, that are around 230. It is either one or the other. This could be one of the causes that Israel is not using full scale operations, but special tactical ones.
Whilst the attack on Gaza is condemned by many around the world, it comes to mind that any country that holds civilian hostages, including women and children, is not following international laws for war. But, interestingly, Hamas just gives the perfect excuse for Israel attacks and evidently does not care much for civilian Palestinian casualties. The PR war has been lost already.
It is evident that Hamas and its some 450 kms. of tunnels in Gaza are a big threat, to Israel, but some type of treaty can be agreed in order to disarm them and destroy the tunnels, but of course they won’t agree for that.
Russia/China/Turkey
They support a cease fire because simply it is in their best interest. Russia is battling in Ukraine and China worries about disruptions in the oil supply and other imports that their economy need. So they will keep pressuring for a cease-fire and wait and see if others get involved (Iran, Turkey for example)
Europe
There is a lot of division amongst supporters of Israel and, like Russia and China it is in their best interest to have a cease fire.


Conclusion
The best for all would be a cease-fire. An escalation, would be extremely negative for the region. Seems like a no-win contest. The only ones to gain are the military industry.
There are already more than 8.000 Palestinian civilians killed, and over 1.400 Israelis killed, but Israel wants to follow thorough and seems that no one can stop them.
The US either won’t or can’t do much, not clear why to most observers. Lack of international experience and knowledge of the new reality in the Middle East could be one.
As some say maybe Israel needs to be saved from itself.

Jose Barroso *(josebarroso@mail.com) is an Economist and Analyst[/QUOTE]

[akyan]

The more attention this conflict gets the less attention will be focused on everywhere else. Also it cost almost nothing to talk talk and talk. Which is most nations do, no one will take a missile for a Palistinian, there's nothing to be gained to sacrifice anything for them. There is alot to be gained by throwing more attention to the conflicts. So it's going to be more talk talk talk and watch the Israelis pound Gaza.

I hope there will be a definite winner, I hope Israel completely destroy every living Hamas member and finally secure their rear. After that focus on the northern front.

[DrKGSmiff]

Originally Posted by ~AngelofDeath~ ↗

There’s a reason why they got booted out by the Romans and were persecuted for 2000 years in europe, the world felt sorry for them after hitler put them in place and decided to give them Israel when they had no claim to it, what’s next give back America to the Indians and Australia to the aborigines?

Hell it took them 2k years to reclaim it, let’s see how long it takes the Muslims to take it back, only a matter of time because we all know how despised they are in ME and the Jews are hellbent on no Muslim countries having nukes. Yes you can talk all the shit you want about how Israel is more developed and which country wouldn’t be after taking America to the cleaners, 4 billion a year and counting about to bankrupt it

You really, REALLY should pick up a history book before you try to “educate” us about history and make yourself look stupid. Islam hasn’t even existed for 2,000 years, and the Jews have held pieces of Israel, almost continuously since the founding of their Kingdom 3,500-4,000 years ago.

There have been brief periods, during one caliphate or another (when the Muslims get uppity and try to take over the world) but, when the British took control of that area, under LoN mandate, there were Muslims, Christians AND Jews there, in numbers, and that was over 100 years ago.

So, no, it’s not Muslim land. It was only ever “Muslim land” for sporadic periods over the last 1300 or so years.

Stop being a cheap shill.

[SDI]

Iran needs its most important proxy Hisbullah and its 200k (??) missiles/rockets as deterrence that US / Israel won't reduce their nuclear sites to rubble.

I doubt they'll sacrifice their best horse in the stable for Gaza.

Btw: Stalingrad is a bad comparison, cause this thing was mainly decided by surprise pincer movements of large armored groups far outside the city. Hamas won't get any assistance from outside.

So better comparisons would the fate of Al Quaida after Tora Bora or IS/ISIS after the siege of Mossul, which both got reduced into kind of shadow existance, minor regional players at best. In case of Al Quaida, almost dead.

Just plainly saying that these kind of organisations can't be defeated is wrong. It is possible. Needs time. Takes many lives. Might get your political reputation damaged due to collateral civilian victims. It can be done.

[depraved1]

Another day, another IDF victory!

[akyan]

The land belong to the people who can enforce sovereignty. It's really that simple. Muslim majority countries cannot defeat a tiny country with a small population, because it can field a superior tech, trained, and motivated army, not to mention the #1 superpower backing it militarily and financially. So until the day things change, all argument are moot point.

[duntez]

Supposedly these people are demanding that Netanyahu resign

[akyan]

Originally Posted by duntez ↗

Supposedly these people are demanding that Netanyahu resign

really bad timing for this kind of protest. But then again it will be hard to protest after war hero Bibi celebrates victory over Hamas.

[duntez]

Originally Posted by akyan ↗

really bad timing for this kind of protest. But then again it will be hard to protest after war hero Bibi celebrates victory over Hamas.

But why are they protesting? Blaming him for his views and actions about Palestine/Gaza that led to terrorist attack and now war and raising antisemitism across the world?