[DarthArchon]

Ukraine:

Trump's election casted doubt but turns out he's putting the most gut eating war hawks you could imagine in his cabinet. Putin might have dirt on him, suggested by some allegation and Putin showcasing of Melania's nude on TV. I think Trump would be smart enough to play with Putin till the very end with any thing he could have. Anyway today trump could just say "These videos are fake news, fake AI news from the Russia" and the scandal would just wash over him and be forgotten the next day like his last 237 previous ones. With AI video you can successfully argue that any video could be ai, especially of a prominent person from a prominent hostile country.

However i also think Trump care about the U.S money and want to still lower expense of nato or at least increase sales of weapons and not just foot the bill. However there's plenty of scenario there that can help Ukraine and he seem to want to untie all offensive measure from them. I also expect troops to be sent as support when confirmation of North Korean troop are on the battlefield.


Israel:

Trump love the jews, he like their business, he like their lawyers. He also probably liked some of J. Epstein's girl, the guy who was most likely a mossad asset, meaning they got him by the ball literally. And he like them anyway, so on this i rest assure.

On the strategic front, the idf has shown how deep and destructive their penetration can be of the Iranian arsenal. Iran can barely hit anything useful with 300 missiles, Israel can destroy almost all of Iran's air defense station in a single but still complex mission. Next is straight up killing their high command.

give me your thoughts

[Faust]

He could be a banned source here, but Scott Ritter will probably make you understand both conflicts a little better. I will not post his videos but you can find him on youtube easily.

Personally I understand that Ukraine is not important anymore; it is highly unlikely the US will gain access to the trillions worth of minerals
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024...-china-russia/
So with that off the table,
Israel is 10 times more important than Ukraine, so all the weapons will go to Israel to bomb Yemen, Iran, Gaza, and so on

As for Iran, I think it is actually the other way around; because of it Israel has lost strike deterrence. So Iran-Israel will be a conflict with active US involvement.

Because of Israel being the closest US ally, not to mention Ukraine becoming a money pit without access to the mineral, I am sure that Ukraine will need to surrender the territories after which I think it is likely there will be another coup. And after that, the US might even send security forces into Ukraine.

Sort of like Afghanistan, but in less than 25 years

[DarthArchon]

Originally Posted by Faust ↗

He could be a banned source here, but Scott Ritter will probably make you understand both conflicts a little better. I will not post his videos but you can find him on youtube easily.

Personally I understand that Ukraine is not important anymore; it is highly unlikely the US will gain access to the trillions worth of minerals
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024...-china-russia/
So with that off the table,
Israel is 10 times more important than Ukraine, so all the weapons will go to Israel to bomb Yemen, Iran, Gaza, and so on

As for Iran, I think it is actually the other way around; because of it Israel has lost strike deterrence. So Iran-Israel will be a conflict with active US involvement.

Because of Israel being the closest US ally, not to mention Ukraine becoming a money pit without access to the mineral, I am sure that Ukraine will need to surrender the territories after which I think it is likely there will be another coup. And after that, the US might even send security forces into Ukraine.

Sort of like Afghanistan, but in less than 25 years

How did Israel lost strike deterrence to Iran exactly?

[mothmon]

I'm just happy at the prospect that, with Trump's blessing (and a few billions in U.S. aid and perhaps active assistance), Israel will crush Hamas, jihadist combatants and regular palestinians that danced that day, and obliterates the Iranian military, infrastructures and the Sharia Law yellowbeards in the regime. It promises to be a very interesting year

[Faust]

Originally Posted by DarthArchon ↗

How did Israel lost strike deterrence to Iran exactly?

[DarthArchon]

Damn... randomly aimed shitty missiles meant to terrorize rather then accomplish any true military goals.

This ain't losing deterence, it's the enemy being an 85 yrs old religious fundamentalist who do not think clearly about military strategy.

So far the casualty of these over 600 missiles is like... 1 palestinian man and 1 hangar hit who might have contained 1-2 f-35 or some equipment related to their use.

In answer Israel destroy every air defense station in the western part of the country and all their air space is now completely open to high precision strikes. If they know where Khamenei is and he try more funny stuff he might be next to die.

I don't see that as losing deterrence, it more about having a mentally deranged enemy who truly do not understand the true consequences of his beliefs and actions.

[Faust]

“Damn... randomly aimed shitty missiles meant to terrorize rather then accomplish any true military goals.”

So they destroyed multiple F35s and parts of the airbase by complete accident?

I understand now that you need to follow a narrative, in which case: just remember everything you believed about Ukraine.
Those were probably the same sources that claim all western Iranian AD is destroyed…

[DarthArchon]

Originally Posted by Faust ↗

“Damn... randomly aimed shitty missiles meant to terrorize rather then accomplish any true military goals.”

So they destroyed multiple F35s and parts of the airbase by complete accident?

I understand now that you need to follow a narrative, in which case: just remember everything you believed about Ukraine.
Those were probably the same sources that claim all western Iranian AD is destroyed…

I don't argue with dunning-krueger delusions sorry.

Over 500 missile to destroy a hangar.. if they are aimed it's even worst

[mothmon]

It literally costs Iran the equivalent of over 2 billion dollars to send 500 of their most advanced missiles into Israel just to barely injure any israelis (though they have had success killing palestinians and other arabs in Israel) and take out 3 or 4 fighter jets. I'm beginning to think the israelis really are God's Chosen Ones (if I believed in God). It's almost supernatural how effective they have been since 1948 in every conflict they have had against the unwashed muslim hordes (though in all fairness muslims haven't won a major conflict against the west since the beginning of the 18th century (1700); they're natural born losers in war )

Now with Trump on their side (in addition to God ) things are going to really start getting interesting in the middle east

[DarthArchon]

Originally Posted by mothmon ↗

It literally costs Iran the equivalent of over 2 billion dollars to send 500 of their most advanced missiles into Israel just to barely injure any israelis (though they have had success killing palestinians and other arabs in Israel) and take out 3 or 4 fighter jets. I'm beginning to think the israelis really are God's Chosen Ones (if I believed in God). It's almost supernatural how effective they have been since 1948 in every conflict they have had against the unwashed muslim hordes (though in all fairness muslims haven't won a major conflict against the west since the beginning of the 18th century (1700); they're natural born losers in war )

Now with Trump on their side (in addition to God ) things are going to really start getting interesting in the middle east

I think the only element that matter here is religiousity. Even though Israel is based on a religious identity, the modern average jew is pretty secular in it's relation with religion and the state. The are more like the american, that the population is religious but the institutions are secular (mostly) because religious doctrine is just too corrosive to truth and adaptation. 2000 yr old principle "Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and unto God the things that are God's"

So i think the solution is to actually disregard God as much as possible. Zealous assholes makes no friends. Just listening to any of Iran's leader's speech is enough to se how backward and cavemanish their culture is.

Logic and reason against religious delusion, the religious delusion stand no chance