[güttsfükk]

Since 13th February three energetic solar flares have erupted on the Sun and spewed clouds of charged plasma called coronal mass ejections (CMEs) out towards the Earth. The biggest of the three flares (an X2.2 at 01:56, 15th Feb) is the largest in over four years. We need to go back to the 13th Dec 2006 to find a bigger one.

Already one CME arrived on the 14th sparking Valentine's Day displays of the Northern Lights (aurora borealis) further south than usual.

The other two CMEs are expected to arrive in the next 24-48 hours. Recent estimates suggest arrival later on the 17th or early 18th Feb. Magnetic storms are likely to follow the arrival of these later CMEs.

Further Northern Lights (aurora) displays are possible some time over the next two nights if skies are clear and the activity peaks in your local night-time.

Source : http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_ser...011-02-15.html




http://www.documentingreality.com/fo...-2011-a-71369/

[Ghost]

Might be worth a trip to Aberdeen tomorrow night.

[bdjackass318]

cool how far south? by the way good to see you on here.

[güttsfükk]

unfortunately i dont know how far south, but i'll sure be keeping my eyes peeled over the next few nights

aye, i dont get much time with work unfortunately.

[happy]

Saw those northern lights once while driving north to Detroit, Michigan. It is a most spectacular sight.

[güttsfükk]

from night sky hunter

X-Class Solar Flare & Inbound CME!

Active region 1158 has produced an X-class solar flare along with a radio blackout event making this the most violent solar eruption in the last four years!. The powerful eruption unleashed a full halo CME which will give a glancing blow to Earth (at the very least) within the next 24-48 hours with the likely impact time on Feb 17-18th. When this CME arrives active periods and full blown geomagnetic storms will be a certainty at northern and possibly mid northern latitudes. This event in conjunction with the earlier weaker M-class and C-class flares and associated CMEs should present skywatchers with several nights of aurora activity so be on full alert. It's such a shame that the full Moon occurs on Feb 18th however don't let this put out off as bright auroras can still be seen with the naked eye. Check out the geomagnetic forecast below and monitor the online aurora charts as much as possible. Good luck!

Watch - Aurora Alert - Feb 16th to 17th (Updated)

Multiple rounds of night sky action is possible over the next three nights as a number of CMEs disturb Earth's magnetic field. Auroras are likely on one or all of the main risk nights with displays at mid latitudes a good probability so be on the alert for aurora displays. Remember to check the aurora charts on a regular basis (links below) and don't let the moonlight put you off!

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for isolated high activity for the next three days (16-18 February). Region 1158 is the most likely source for activity.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (16 February). Day two (17 February) is expected to be quiet to active with a chance for minor storming late in the period. Day three (18 February) is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storming. The increase in activity is forecast due to expected arrival of the CME from the X2 event.

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

Middle Latitudes

Active - 15/25/35

Minor storm - 01/15/20

Major-severe storm - 01/01/05

High Latitudes

Active - 20/45/45

Minor storm - 05/25/25

Major-severe storm - 00/05/05

http://www.spaceweather.com/

http://www.spacew.com/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

http://portal.cssdp.ca:8080/ssdp/app...s/rt_oval.html

http://www.solen.info/solar/

http://salmon.nict.go.jp/live/aurora...ora_cam_e.html (Alaska Live Aurora Cam)

[bdjackass318]

that sunspot that is releasing those powerful solar flares towards earth is less than a week old and as big as jupiter. amazing! are these big enough to screw up our communication satellites?

[güttsfükk]

did anyone see anythin?