[WonderMomma]

"Over 350km north of Rostov in Voronezh Oblast, it appears that a separate group of Wagner forces are pushing north on the M4 highway, engaging Russian forces outside of Pavlovsk at the moment."






#russiancivilwar

[WonderMomma]

"To the south of Rostov, in the city of Bataysk, fighters of the Wagner PMC were also seen."


#russiancivilwar

[Rfneimad]

Ha, called it! Suck it Faust.

[Rfneimad]

Strelkov:

It means like this:
1) The Wagner mutiny began clearly prematurely. The front is not broken, ukry do not win. In this situation, rebellion means "stab in the back" and the army will not support it.
2) The prematurity of the rebellion (which was clearly planned in advance) is caused by a simple fact: in the near future, Prigozhin would certainly be deprived of the main part of his troops - to maintain even a 30,000th military group at his own expense, without the support of the state (read - funds and materials from the Moscow Region RF) - he definitely could not have been for more than a couple of months (and even then - hardly);
3) At the moment there are no videos, etc. evidence of the active actions of the "Wagners". There is information that their forces in the rear training camps did not know anything at all and were not ready to act. With a high probability - only a part of the units concentrated in the Lugansk region takes part in the rebellion.
4) "Campaign to Moscow" for "Wagner" is extremely difficult - most of the tanks simply will not reach Moscow on their own, it is generally useless to drag artillery to Moscow, and attacking in light armored vehicles means risking defeat along the road, which is generally "easier than easy ". Everything rests solely on the presence of loyal units ready to fulfill the order and open fire to kill ("Akhmat" may well execute, for example, and not only "Akhmat")
5) If by the morning (that is, after 5-6 hours) "Wagner" does not achieve significant success (and so far no success has been heard of it) and military units do not openly go over to its side, the rebellion will drag on and every day it the final success will be more and more improbable... well, if the Kremlin doesn't screw up out of habit, of course, and start urgently "searching for compromises" and exposing Prigozhin to use the overworked nose of a well-known VIP official.

[Rfneimad]

And, yes, I thought that something like this would be closer to autumn, but rather already in autumn and always against the backdrop of new defeats at the front. Although in advance (more than once, who on my page for a long time - can testify) publicly assumed that Prigozhin could play a significant role in the coup or its attempt. Therefore, for me, the rebellion right now is also a bit of a surprise. The hasty withdrawal of "Wagner" from the front and Prigozhin's active struggle for "a place near Belgorod" gave me the idea that he was preparing a "march on Moscow" (from Belgorod to Moscow is definitely much closer than from Lugansk). But the competition was won by Akhmat. And, finally, Prigozhin's actions are really a stab in the back and cannot be perceived differently by me. Not to mention the fact that his possible coming to power will immediately cause:
- rebellion in Chechnya and the beginning of the 3rd Chechen campaign (inevitable);
- a very likely collapse of the front and the enemy's invasion of the Crimea, the fall of Donetsk and Lugansk;
- the beginning of the process of disintegration of the Russian Federation;
- A short, but very dirty and bloody period of the "Latin American dictatorship." Without rules and without laws - according to criminal "concepts".

[WonderMomma]

Haha I was actually waiting to hear back from KH if we should start this. I've posted a bunch of stuff today about it all in the media thread and the briefing thread. Hopefully, he can move it all in here. Thanks D.

[duntez]

Originally Posted by Rfneimad ↗

Ha, called it! Suck it Faust

Too much going on right now. But for some reason my first thought was - WTF Kadyrivs are going to do now lol

[duntez]

Not sure who’s on the left, but on his right is one of the generals who fought alongside with Wagners in Syria and knows them very well, can’t remember his name. Discussing what to do next and wtf

Edit: general-lieutenant Alekseev Vladimir Stepanovich

#russiancivilwar

[Rfneimad]

Originally Posted by duntez ↗

My first thoughts on this

Too much going on right now. But for some reason my first thought was - WTF Kadyrivs are going to do now lol

Make a bunch of videos

[Loubopjnr]

"Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a televised address shortly, the Tass news agency quotes a Kremlin spokesman as saying."